By Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor
Snow Forecastor & Owner
snowatch.com.au

It is a season like no other, so how is Covid Season 2020 looking?

(posted: 04/06/20 – 4pm)

2020 had been a year unlike no other, not just for Australia but the world. Australian’s have had to endure, drought, bushfires, floods and then came the COVID-19 global pandemic. Businesses and families in the mountains were already hurting economically well before any thoughts of an upcoming snow season that may well have helped to get things back on track. The devastating news for any regulars of Selwyn Snow Resort was that the resort was completely burnt to the ground and was never going to be open in 2020 (photos below show the destruction).

COVID-19 spreading across Australia in March and increased dramatically in cases during April which had it looking like any thoughts of snow season was a pipe dream at best. The Australian public and businesses did a great job in flattening the curve to an extent that the Federal and State governments of NSW and Victoria have given the OK to run a snow season that will commence from the 22nd of June.

All resorts came together with heads of industry and govt to work on how season 2020 would work with social distancing still to continue until a covid cure can be found. It was never going to be easy work out and there were always going to be plenty of unhappy people. Reduced numbers on the slopes, accommodation to open that doesn’t have communal use facilities, reduced numbers on lifts and the inevitable increase in lift ticket prices to counter any losses selected by ‘click frenzy’ style online selling. To many the only positive is that at least the resorts will be open and there will be skiing and boarding.

Many of course will elect just to give 2020 a miss altogether due to costs and not being guaranteed lifts tickets, others will wait to see if the Trans Tasman bubble opens in July and head over to the South Island skifields of New Zealand. There will also be plenty who are ready and willing to hit the Australian slopes and work with the social distancing protocols that we have come accustomed to.

My job now is to inform on what I think the slightly delayed start to Season 2020 will be like. Will we have plenty of natural snow, no snow at all or enough man made stuff to have limited lifts running.

Early signs were good with some decent snow falling in May and then the first day of Winter produced another drop of natural snow that had everyone hyped for a good season with the usual media outlets dropping the tag that I personally dislike ‘bumper season’. What’s quite normal so early on is that the snow doesn’t hang around long due to warmish temperatures.

This week we have seen some resorts begin to make snow thanks to some cold clear nights. What’s good about this is that the ground was already cool thanks to the thin layer of snow from Monday 1st of June. Weather permitting the snow makers can now work on building a base leading into the season opening.

Now we have good and bad news in regards to what’s coming up leading into the opening weekend. I’ll start with the bad news which is that currently it looks like we will see very little in the way of natural snow falling in the resorts over the next couple of weeks. The southern hemisphere is being dominated by strong high pressure systems that are forcing any potential snow systems to the south under the mainland. And whilst this is not good news for the Australian resorts it is good news for those in the south of New Zealand with the kiwis picking up what we miss. There is a little snow likely in our resorts on the 6th (which will only be a dusting), the 14th to 16th should see some snowfalls mixed in with some showers at the beginning. Opening weekend looks like we might snow some snow around the 23rd-24th and fingers crossed this one brings something decent.

Whilst we don’t look like seeing any really big natural falls for a little while yet we have the next best thing and that is a lot of cold clear nights with light winds coming up that will allow the snow guns to fire for long periods and at least create enough of a base to make sure we do have some runs open and lifts spinning come season opening. Another positive is that we shouldn’t see much of that ugly wet stuff that washes snow away.

OK, we have established that we are likely to start the season with mostly man made snow and a little natural stuff thrown in, but when will be see a season starter dump to really get things moving. On average June is a bit of a write off in regards to natural cover and things usually get going early July. At the moment it looks like that trend will continue. There is a nice cold system due to arrive in the first week of July that looks to have enough juice in it to deliver a cold blast to the mountains that will give us a decent fall of snow. It has a long way to travel, it’s only just passing NZ and still has to revolve around the entire southern hemisphere to reach us, but the size and position looks better than anything coming before it.

Most resorts are still to announce the details of their Covid affected seasons, although Thredbo did come out this week with their plan and copped a bit of a hammering on social media mainly because of the increase in lift tickets and season ticket holders only getting a discount on day tickets. Just remember the resorts would open everything if possible and continue as normal if they could, but unfortunately they still have to pay the same amount of staff to operate lifts, do maintenance, make snow, groom slopes, pay for power etc but have the number of paying customers capped well below normal capacity.

Keep an eye on the Snowatch long range forecast for daily updates on what’s coming over the next month and also the daily 15 day forecasts for each resort. Remember the Snowatch forecasts are the only ones done manually by a human (me) without the use of computer algorithms spitting out amounts that never occur. One tip I will give for those that follow the algorithms, ignore the afternoon updates they give as they inflate the predicted amounts by a lot, stick to the morning run of numbers as they are much closer to the mark. I’ll be keeping an eye out for these high pressure systems to weaken, once they do then it’s game on and the snow systems will head up to the mountains rather than slip under and over the NZ.

Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor

www.snowatch.com.au

The post Opening weekend and early season outlook appeared first on Snowatch.

NEW FOR 2019:

A refreshed toboggan experience

While other Australian ski resorts have banned tobogganing, Mt Baw Baw is fully embracing it. Located in the heart of the Village, Frosti Frog Hollow Toboggan Park is guaranteed to be covered in snow on Opening Weekend (8-9 June) with a dedicated snow machine pumping new dumps on the popular slope daily. Australia’s first downhill ski resort to have a Magic Carpet lift on the toboggan park, the return journey no longer means a strenuous struggle back up the hill. Access to the Magic Carpet and Toboggan Park is $10 per day, or covered by the cost of a lift pass. 

Official Snowball Fights

Tapping into the popular Japanese trend, Mt Baw Baw will become the first alpine resort in Australia to offer organised snowball fights when it launches its National Snowball Fighting Championship this season. Using International Yukigassen Rules, snowfighters are encouraged to enter with a group of friends or family in a bid to take home the trophy. Lessons and snowball fighting sessions will take place throughout the July school holidays and during peak periods, with the Championship scheduled for 14-15 September. 

Free 15 minute snowboarding sessions for kids

Littlies who want to dip a toe in the snow before diving right in can experience a taster snowboarding lesson for free. The ‘Come and Try’ sessions are available for children under six and are designed to let them get a feel for the board before committing to a full three or six hour session. 

BACK FOR 2019:

Meet the Dingoes

Rowdy and Warragul are set to experience their second full winter on the mountain as the star attractions at Mt Baw Baw’s NUTRO™ Dingo Resource Centre. Rowdy (ginger fur) is an alpine/desert dingo cross and Warragul (light fur) is 100% Alpine Dingo. Meet the Dingoes sessions and talks are available throughout the season. The centre also offers the chance to learn about the critically endangered Baw Baw Frog, Leadbeater’s Possum and other local flora and fauna.

Howling Husky experiences

Jump on board a dogsled led by eight huskies for an alpine experience like no other. Ranging in length from 30 minutes to four hours (the longest commercial dog sled trail in Australia), the tours weave through the mountainous terrain, amongst the snow gums and onto open plateaus. Those who prefer to do the hiking themselves can don a pair of snowshoes and harness themselves to a retired husky for a One Hour Day Tour or Two Hour Sunset Tour with Powder Pup Snowshoe Tours.

Free kids club

Kids of all ages are invited to take part in Mt Baw Baw’s free kids club during the July school holidays as parents spread their wings and relax. The dedicated carers will enthrall the kids with a range of activities including arts, crafts, movies and snowball fights.

WEEKEND EVENTS

Winter weekends are packed full of fun at Mt Baw Baw with a stellar event line-up, including: 

• Opening weekend (8-9 June): Free resort entry, guaranteed runs open, live music and entertainment and Gunaikurnai Welcome to Country and Smoking Ceremony 
• Indigenous Art workshops (15-16 June): with local artist Ronald-Edwards Pepper
• Winter Warmers Week (24-29 June): with comforting food, drinks and activities 
• School Holiday Kids Club and Snow Fighting (1-14 July)
• Christmas in July (19-20 July):complete with a visit from Santa and carols
• Japan Weekend (27-28 July):with Japanese food, snowball fighting “come try” sessions and Japanese Taiko drummers and performers
• Brew Fest(3-4 August): with plenty of beer and Europeans style sausages 
• Toboggan Race (10-11 August):compete to be the Best Tobogganer in Australia
• Bollywood at Baw Baw (17-18 August): with Indian food, dancing and entertainment
• Rail Jam Competition: (TBC August): open to amateurs and pros
• Dog Sled Dash (31 August – 1 September): a race on the cross country tracks 
• Baw Baw Pride(7-8 September): a Pride Ride down the slopes and Drag Performers 
• Snow Fighting Competition (14-15 September): using Yukigassen International Rules
• Big Air Bag Charity Event (20-21 September): with a jump organised by Snowsports

As Australia’s most accessible downhill ski resort, just 2.5 hours from Melbourne, Mt Baw Baw offers affordable fun for snow-goers of all ages and any skill level. With 35 hectares of gentle snow terrain set amongst the snow gums, a dedicated snow factory guaranteeing fresh powder, and plenty of experienced instructors to lend a helping hand, families and first-timers looking to hit the slopes are well catered for. 

In addition to its 25 downhill runs, Mt Baw Baw also provides access to 10 kilometres of groomed cross-country trails, plus more in the National Park – all of which can be accessed for the price of resort entry. The fun continues off the slopes, with plenty of activities on offer to entice even the most inexperienced snow bunny.  Don’t forget to grab your snack from the latest Big W Catalogue.

The post See what’s new at Mt Baw Baw for Season 2019 appeared first on Snowatch.

By Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor
Snow Forecastor & Owner
snowatch.com.au

A look at the coming snow season for Australia

(posted: 06/05/19 – 10pm)

As per usual at this time of year everyone wants to know what the coming season has in store, and I’m no different. We would all love to see a couple of early dumps before the opening weekend and then consistent top ups each week through to September, but that’s not realistic. So what is?

An average June is considered a bit of a write off, and only for the desperate who don’t mind skiing on mostly man made snow. Most resorts know this and have early season festivals and events planned to fill the void. The resorts have pumped millions of dollars into snowmaking infrastructure over the last 20+ years and it has meant that June can actually have decent skiing and boarding even without natural snow, we just need cold clear nights. I remember below average snowfalls seasons at Thredbo that have seen top to bottom skiing on the Crackenback/Kosi Supertrail from June through to closing weekend in October because of extended periods of cold clear nights from large blocking high pressure systems. 2017 was one of the worst starts to a season on record. Warm early temps and some rain meant there was little to no snowmaking and virtually no natural snow for the whole of June. July saw three dumps and another in early August and the season was in full swing. The snow kept on falling and peaked in late September (much later that the usual mid August peak). Last year the first decent snow was a bit earlier in mid June and peaked early August.

Now to season 2019. The coming snow season will start to get a lot of traction in the media later this week with some decent snow likely to fall in the mountains, but with it still being a month before the season starts it’s unlikely the snow is going to hang around for long. It may help Mt Buller add a bit to their already quite large stockpile of snow thanks to their snow factory technology that makes snow at temps well above zero. This pretty much guarantees them to have at least Bourke Street running for the opening weekend.

Most resorts start to make snow in the third week of May, weather permitting and Perisher a little before that. It wouldn’t surprise me if Perisher was to make an early move and turn on the guns with cold nights forecast for next week after the snowfalls clear, but we will just have to wait and see for that one.

Current weather patterns suggest a drier than average start to the season and also daytime maximum temperatures to be higher than average. This is both good and bad. It means we are not likely get a lot of natural snow but we are likely to see large blocking high pressure systems dominating over the SE of the country. This is fairly normal for this time and year and it should also mean that we should get extended periods of cold night for the snow guns to fire up. With not a lot of rain on the cards early on then it’s quite likely we should see skiing and boarding on the slopes with snowmaking.

The BOM says there is a 70% chance of an El Nino forming towards the end of the season with warm ocean surface temps in the North Pacific, although cool temps at lower depths suggest if El Nino does happen it will be short lived. This shouldn’t really have too much to do with the snow season if it does happen as it will be quite late and probably only weak anyway.

The next month

Early snow this week will increase interest in the coming season but probably won’t have any real bearing on it. Some light snow is possible around the 22nd but it could also be just light showers with some snow up top. At the moment most low pressure systems will slip south just under the mountains. The last week of May is showing some promise for snow, but at this stage I’d say only around 5cm or so, which would be a nice help for the snowmakers to work with.

Early June should see snow around the 3rd-5th with around 5-10cm (fingers crossed for a bit more than that). Following this I see a period of not much snow and unfortunately warmer temps with the occasional shower. So the start of the season from what I can see is that we will be pretty much relying on the snowmakers to fire up to to get runs open.

The high pressure systems look to dominate during mid June and unless we can get a freak dump from somewhere we may be looking at another late start. I see July being another decent one as will August. The highs should weaken early July and let the cold fronts move a bit further north into the mountains and resorts, hopefully early enough for the school holidays, but it may be touch and go.

I do see a lot of similarities with 2017 and 2018 (apart from the mid June first dump last year), although I wouldn’t expect to hit such great heights or also for the snow to keep falling well into late September but I do see it being a bit above average as far as peak depth goes. I’d be looking at around 180-190cm at Spencer’s Creek.

With all that being said, just remember the weather is a fickle thing and we could easily see a cold front slip north and hit the mountains early, it only takes one dump to get things going, it’s just that it’s not very likely looking at the current patterns, charts and previous seasons data.

Keep an eye on the Snowatch long range forecast for daily updates on what coming over the next month and also the daily 15 day forecasts for the resorts.

Here’s to a good season!

The Frog

The post Snowatch 2019 Season Outlook appeared first on Snowatch.

By Pete Taylor
Snow Forecastor & Owner
snowatch.com.au

With little to no natural snow in the resorts it will be touch and go for some to get a lift or two running for opening weekend. So what’s the likelihood of resorts have a run or two going?

Here is how I see it:

There will be some snowmaking opportunities over the next week which will help but there is also a large moisture band due to arrive in the mountains on Friday that could really put a dampener on the opening weekend festivities. There is also a ‘but’ with that. The system ‘could’ also drop some white flakes. The snow line looks to be marginal at the moment and if it shifts one degree less we may get 5-10cm, but if it goes the other way and sits around 2C then we are in for a wet weekend and it will cause damage to the already thin man made cover.

Perisher

If anything will be open it’s definitely Perisher with their extensive snowmaking capabilities on Front Valley and even up to mid station. They always seem to get the guns firing before everyone else and stack up whales of snow at the bottom, then get the groomers spread it out prior to opening. The current cover is thin but building all the time and will no doubt they will be open for business come next Saturday.

Thredbo

Looks to be struggling at the moment and will need a huge snowmaking effort over the coming week to open anything. They will do their best to get Friday Flat and the Merritt’s areas open but I think it’s long odds at the moment. Best they could hope for is a strip on Friday Flat.

Charlotte Pass

Opens mid June so no news there.

Selwyn Snow Resort

Being the lowest of the NSW resorts Selwyn struggles to make snow as often as the higher resorts due to marginal temps. I thought their savour would be the ‘snow factory’ technology they bought last season (which is the same as Mt Buller and Baw Baw have), but I have been informed by the resort that it was sent back as “it didn’t suit their needs”. That seems a bit odd as the snow factory is the sole reason that both Buller and Baw Baw will be able to have slopes open next weekend. Selwyn is at long odds to have New Chum running as the showers on Friday will damage the thin cover.

Mt Buller

Now with the ‘Snow Factory’ technology Buller has been stockpiling snow for the last month. This snow will be spread out by the grooming team over the coming days and along with snowmaking adding to it we should see enough of a cover to have Bourke Street open next weekend.

Falls Creek

With limited opportunities to fire up the snow guns over the last week or two Falls is struggling with a very thin cover. They would have been hoping to have at least Towers and maybe Wombat’s Ramble open, but it will take a big snowmaking effort for that to happen, and with the showers forecast for Friday it will be a step back. If we get lucky with snow falling on Friday night and into Saturday, then possibly we could see something open but don’t hold your breathe.

Hotham

Hotham finds itself pretty much in the same predicament as Falls Creek. They haven’t been able to make a lot of snow so far. They will be doing their best to get Big D and The Summit open, and it could be possible with a big week of snowmaking. If we can add some natural snow it may help but the likely early showers on Friday will not help at all. Probably unlikely to have lifts running just yet.

Baw Baw

Like Buller they have invested in the Snow Factory technology and have been stockpiling snow for some time. They should be able to spread that out enough to have a run open, and enough snow for those wanting to have a play. Well done Snow Factory, because without it Baw Baw could not open (and maybe not for a while yet).

Even is the lifts aren’t spinning at your favourite resort the opening weekend has always been the party weekend and the big resorts all have a variety of festivities that you can enjoy, just jump onto their website or facebook pages for details.

Keep an eye on the Snowatch forecasts over the coming days to see what eventuates with the front due late next week.

Pete

The post Opening weekend: What lifts/runs will be open? appeared first on Snowatch.