Updated: August 1st, 5:34am
Cloud increasing with light showers developing today that could possibly fall as snow about the peaks in Victorian overnight. Temps should drop tomorrow morning with light snow developing above around 1700-1800m at first and then lowering to around 1500m during the day. Winds will be strong tomorrow. This is the first of a series of snow bearing fronts that should arrive over the next week bringing snow across Sunday to Thursday with some flurries about on Friday and Saturday. All up we should see around 15-35cm during this time.

It should then be mostly fine with some cloudy periods from the 9th-11th where will should see showers developing ahead of a cool change on the 12th with light snow likely across the 12th and 13th.

Looking long range another system around the 16th-17th is looking nice for a good fall of snow before a break and then light snow across the 22nd-23rd and then the 27th-28th could bring more light snow.

Pete


Updated: 24th of April @ 02:38:52PM

Season 2015 Outlook and Early Season forecast
You might hear a lot about El Nino showing up again this season. El Nino would usually mean less rainfall over winter and spring. The bureau tells us that the likelihood of El Niño developing in 2015 is at least 70%. There have been 26 El Nino’s since 1900 with 17 leading to widespread drought conditions. I’d suggest forgetting about this for now as it shouldn’t have any real impact on the early part of our season. It’s effect will more than likely been seen from July into September.

The sea surface temps in the Indian Ocean are very warm at the moment and this has largely been the reason for the inland rainfall this month across the country. We should see moisture continuing to move across the country from the west over May and June with warmer than average temps, especially the minimum temps. This is not good news for the snowmakers as we like cold clear nights with low humidity/moisture levels to make snow. What looks like happening is plenty of cloudy days/nights with a lot of moisture in the air. It’s been a few years since we had a good run of snowmaking leading into the season and it looks like we might have to wait another year for that cycle to break (although fingers crossed we can get a few cold clear nights here and there before opening).



In short I see a fairly wet May, and June with July being the month for snowfalls as the temps start to drop and the moisture feed from the west dries up a little. Early August should also see some decent snow falling and plenty of cold nights for snowmaking, but it could be a bit too late to have any great impact on an already struggling season.

Pete (aka The Frog)

If publishing any of the above forecast outlook please quote Snowatch.com.au at the source.
Updated: July 31st, 12:03pm
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