Forecast Updated: 5:19am 22/05/2013
We could see a light dusting of snow today as weak change arrives. Light snow above 1700-1800m should continue on and off into Thursday. A high pressure system will then move across the SE of the country bringing mainly fine weather through to the 31st. The snowmakers should be able to get going during the cold clear nights from the 24th-30th. This looks like being the best snowmaking window prior to the season.
Another weak change (due to the strong blocking high pressure system pushing this system south) around the 31st should see light snow flurries across the 31st to 2nd of June. At this stage it looks to be only on the higher areas but this could change as it moves across from the west.
Looking long range there is good potential for a another fall of natural snow between the 8th-9th and then the 14th-16th June.
SUMMARY: Last Updated: 15th of May
Overall things are on the improve with the highs not as dominant as they normally are at this time of year. May usually brings long periods of sunny days due to blocking high pressure systems which cause most cold fronts to slip to the south under the mainland. With the breakdown on the highs so early on the likelihood of consistent snowfalls increases as the low pressure systems and cold fronts (that bring snow) reach further north over the mountains.
With the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) reading just staying in the negative (currently -3) over the last month, and looking to continue around that area, things are looking positive. With a decent start to the season and consistent snowfalls over the next month we should see happy skiers/boarders/and resorts. Season 2012 was a season of consistent light snowfalls from mid July through to the end of August and considered slightly above average for most resorts. Season 2013 is shaping up to be better than that.
As per last year I see the lower resorts (like Selwyn,Baw Baw and even Mt Buller) struggling early on to see a full cover as much of the early snow predicted is above 1600-1700m.
Pete (The Frog)
(Please note: anyone publishing/copying any of the above material please quote the source as snowatch.com.au)
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