Updated: 5:48am 30/09/2011
Finally we saw some snow falling yesterday in the mountains and it should continue with light falls today and then another 5-12cm tomorrow, so could be worth a weekend trip for those keen to have one last slide for 2011 (to the resorts that remain open).
Looking further ahead there doesn't look like any decent snowfalls on the horizon. I can't really see anything more til later in the month if at all.
This is the last forecast for season 2011. A season that started with so much promise, breaking early records, and ended so sadly with yet another non existent August-September in regards to snowfalls.
Will be putting up the new overseas pages with more cams and forecast info soon for those keen to keep watching the snow in our off season.
Pete
Season 2011 – What has happened and where is it going?
Updated: 18th of August @ 8:51PM
It started with early promise, early snowfalls in May and light snowfalls first week of June. The only negative early was that temps weren't so good for snowmaking. Mid June saw good snowfalls and the Spencer's Creek depth rose to over 70cm which was very good that early on.
With the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) dropping and Bureau's announcing an end to the current La Nina pattern things were looking good. The season really took off first week of July with 70-110cm across the major resorts from a very powerful series of fronts with blizzard conditions and gale force winds causing havoc across the mountains. Everyone was in high spirits with snow depths now at levels not seen for over 10 years.
This is where things plateaued. The SOI level started to rise again from the low positives that the early season had seen. This meant that the likelihood of warmer moist air from the north was increasing. We saw light snow in the middle July but nothing to really increase the snow depths much from what they were. A strong system moved over the mountains late in July and unfortunately teased us with temps hovering around 0.5C-1.5C and around 100mm of rain falling due to a SE airflow from an ECL (East Coast Low). Snow depths dropped as a result and the lower slopes really suffered.
What was worse to follow was a strong high over the SE of the country and an unseasonally warm airflow from the north bringing record warm temps for early August to some areas which resulted in a fair amount of snow melt. The SOI level was now back up to around 9 (for good snow I like to see this hover around +3 to +5) which wasn't good.
Rain this week has seen more damage to the cover, especially at Mount Buller which really copped a hammering. With limited snowmaking windows over the next week or two they will struggle to keep runs open.
Next week should see temps once again rise and a period of warm weather will see more snow melt occur. It looks like we will have to wait until at least the end of the month and the first week of September to see any good natural snowfalls which could be a little too late for some slopes (especially low elevation and high traffic areas). Unless we see good snow over the first two weeks of September (which I see as very possible looking at the current southern hemisphere setup and dropping SOI level) then it will be a season that showed promise but couldn't quite get there, although for Buller, Baw Baw and Selwyn it may be too late anyway.
Late season snow is not unusual, in 2009 we saw 50cm+ fall just after the last lifts closed in October so we just have to wait in hope.
Pete
(Please note: anyone publishing/copying any of the above material please quote the source as snowatch.com.au)
Finally we saw some snow falling yesterday in the mountains and it should continue with light falls today and then another 5-12cm tomorrow, so could be worth a weekend trip for those keen to have one last slide for 2011 (to the resorts that remain open).
Looking further ahead there doesn't look like any decent snowfalls on the horizon. I can't really see anything more til later in the month if at all.
This is the last forecast for season 2011. A season that started with so much promise, breaking early records, and ended so sadly with yet another non existent August-September in regards to snowfalls.
Will be putting up the new overseas pages with more cams and forecast info soon for those keen to keep watching the snow in our off season.
Pete
Season 2011 – What has happened and where is it going?
Updated: 18th of August @ 8:51PM
It started with early promise, early snowfalls in May and light snowfalls first week of June. The only negative early was that temps weren't so good for snowmaking. Mid June saw good snowfalls and the Spencer's Creek depth rose to over 70cm which was very good that early on.
With the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) dropping and Bureau's announcing an end to the current La Nina pattern things were looking good. The season really took off first week of July with 70-110cm across the major resorts from a very powerful series of fronts with blizzard conditions and gale force winds causing havoc across the mountains. Everyone was in high spirits with snow depths now at levels not seen for over 10 years.
This is where things plateaued. The SOI level started to rise again from the low positives that the early season had seen. This meant that the likelihood of warmer moist air from the north was increasing. We saw light snow in the middle July but nothing to really increase the snow depths much from what they were. A strong system moved over the mountains late in July and unfortunately teased us with temps hovering around 0.5C-1.5C and around 100mm of rain falling due to a SE airflow from an ECL (East Coast Low). Snow depths dropped as a result and the lower slopes really suffered.
What was worse to follow was a strong high over the SE of the country and an unseasonally warm airflow from the north bringing record warm temps for early August to some areas which resulted in a fair amount of snow melt. The SOI level was now back up to around 9 (for good snow I like to see this hover around +3 to +5) which wasn't good.
Rain this week has seen more damage to the cover, especially at Mount Buller which really copped a hammering. With limited snowmaking windows over the next week or two they will struggle to keep runs open.
Next week should see temps once again rise and a period of warm weather will see more snow melt occur. It looks like we will have to wait until at least the end of the month and the first week of September to see any good natural snowfalls which could be a little too late for some slopes (especially low elevation and high traffic areas). Unless we see good snow over the first two weeks of September (which I see as very possible looking at the current southern hemisphere setup and dropping SOI level) then it will be a season that showed promise but couldn't quite get there, although for Buller, Baw Baw and Selwyn it may be too late anyway.
Late season snow is not unusual, in 2009 we saw 50cm+ fall just after the last lifts closed in October so we just have to wait in hope.
Pete
(Please note: anyone publishing/copying any of the above material please quote the source as snowatch.com.au)
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Thredbo | Perisher | Charlotte | Buller | Falls | Hotham |
| 24hr Snow | 0cm | 0cm | 0cm | 0cm | 0cm | 0cm |
| Snow Depth | 0cm | 0cm | 0cm | 0cm | 0cm | 0cm |
| Live Temp | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
