Updated: May 4th, 5:17amThe current southern hemisphere charts are showing very weak low pressure systems and dominating large highs (which is quite normal for this time of year). With this pattern set to continue for a while yet we shouldn't see any big snowfalls in the short term.
This week should see a bit of a mixed bag with some sun, cloud and showers along with strong westerly winds.
We should see a cold change arriving late on the 12th with snow likely to develop. This should continue into the 13th with around 5cm possible in the resorts. This looks like a good time for the snowmakers to get going also.
A weak change on the 16th could see some light snow up high.
I do like the look of a large cold pressure system due around the 24th-26th of May. If this stays on track and keeps it's position between the highs then we could be in for some good snow.
Updated: 24th of April @ 02:38:52PM
Season 2015 Outlook and Early Season forecast
You might hear a lot about El Nino showing up again this season. El Nino would usually mean less rainfall over winter and spring. The bureau tells us that the likelihood of El Niño developing in 2015 is at least 70%. There have been 26 El Nino’s since 1900 with 17 leading to widespread drought conditions. I’d suggest forgetting about this for now as it shouldn’t have any real impact on the early part of our season. It’s effect will more than likely been seen from July into September.
The sea surface temps in the Indian Ocean are very warm at the moment and this has largely been the reason for the inland rainfall this month across the country. We should see moisture continuing to move across the country from the west over May and June with warmer than average temps, especially the minimum temps. This is not good news for the snowmakers as we like cold clear nights with low humidity/moisture levels to make snow. What looks like happening is plenty of cloudy days/nights with a lot of moisture in the air. It’s been a few years since we had a good run of snowmaking leading into the season and it looks like we might have to wait another year for that cycle to break (although fingers crossed we can get a few cold clear nights here and there before opening).
In short I see a fairly wet May, and June with July being the month for snowfalls as the temps start to drop and the moisture feed from the west dries up a little. Early August should also see some decent snow falling and plenty of cold nights for snowmaking, but it could be a bit too late to have any great impact on an already struggling season.
What’s the immediate outlook leading into the opening weekend?
This is the part where I look at the southern hemisphere charts and map out when and where the snow, if any, will fall between now and the start of June.
The rain we have had in the mountains this week will become a little icey on Sunday with some snow and sleet likely across the higher areas into Monday and Tuesday. I see a bit of a cold outbreak around the 10th-12th of May with light snow possible. Following this is another quite strong cold system due around the 16-18th that could bring some more light snow across the resorts. After this I see a bit of a flat spell with warm moist air meaning we should see quite a bit of shower activity and humid nights, which is not great for making snow. The next snow I see might not come til the second week of June. I’ll be starting the daily forecasts on May 1st and will update any developments on these as I see them.
Keeping everything crossed and praying to the snow gods that things swing around and we get a couple of Snowmageddon type dumps early on like last season.
Pete (aka The Frog)
If publishing any of the above forecast outlook please quote Snowatch.com.au at the source.
Updated: May 4th, 8:13am
|No Snow||Light Snow||Heavy Snow|
Thredbo 8.2C | Perisher 10.0C | Falls 6.9C | Hotham 0