Updated: May 28th, 5:17amWarm day with light scattered showers today before clearing tomorrow and remaining mostly fine through to Saturday.
The next snow looks like falling on Sunday night into Monday morning. It doesn't look like it will last too long or reach low levels but it might just give a nice little base to help with snowmaking on the higher areas. Temps should also be cold enough on Monday to runs the snow guns.
Looking long range the high pressure systems are dominating the southern hemisphere weather patterns and as such are pushing most of the cold fronts south of the mainland and in turn over to New Zealand. It looks like we will have to wait til these highs weaken before we will see any significant snowfalls. Unfortunately it doesn't look like there will be many snowmaking nights either with temps above zero and too much moisture in the air.
Looking into June light snow is possible around the 12th, although it only looks like a dusting at the moment. Long range I can't see much happening til the highs weaken and the next snow might not be til around the 17th and then the 22nd-23rd and these would only be light falls.
Updated: 24th of April @ 02:38:52PM
Season 2015 Outlook and Early Season forecast
You might hear a lot about El Nino showing up again this season. El Nino would usually mean less rainfall over winter and spring. The bureau tells us that the likelihood of El Niño developing in 2015 is at least 70%. There have been 26 El Nino’s since 1900 with 17 leading to widespread drought conditions. I’d suggest forgetting about this for now as it shouldn’t have any real impact on the early part of our season. It’s effect will more than likely been seen from July into September.
The sea surface temps in the Indian Ocean are very warm at the moment and this has largely been the reason for the inland rainfall this month across the country. We should see moisture continuing to move across the country from the west over May and June with warmer than average temps, especially the minimum temps. This is not good news for the snowmakers as we like cold clear nights with low humidity/moisture levels to make snow. What looks like happening is plenty of cloudy days/nights with a lot of moisture in the air. It’s been a few years since we had a good run of snowmaking leading into the season and it looks like we might have to wait another year for that cycle to break (although fingers crossed we can get a few cold clear nights here and there before opening).
In short I see a fairly wet May, and June with July being the month for snowfalls as the temps start to drop and the moisture feed from the west dries up a little. Early August should also see some decent snow falling and plenty of cold nights for snowmaking, but it could be a bit too late to have any great impact on an already struggling season.
Pete (aka The Frog)
If publishing any of the above forecast outlook please quote Snowatch.com.au at the source.
Updated: May 27th, 9:29am
|No Snow||Light Snow||Heavy Snow|
Thredbo 2.7C | Perisher 4.3C | Falls 4.1C | Hotham 0