Updated: July 4th, 5:34amGreat new in the mountains with light snowfalls on Thursday and very cold temps over the last two nights allowing for a huge night of snowmaking. Although not huge snowfalls we should see some more runs and lifts opening for the weekend at the resorts. Thredbo will be opening the Kosi Supertrail for the first time today.
The good news doesn't stop there with next week looking like light snow starting falling on the 6th and 7th before a much stronger front arrives on the 10th. We could see snow falling every day from the 10th to 19th. At the moment it looks like we could see anything from 25-55cm during this time, although I'm hoping this could actually be more than that.
Looking long range I like the look of the following periods for more snow 25th-26th and the 29th-30th.
Updated: 24th of April @ 02:38:52PM
Season 2015 Outlook and Early Season forecast
You might hear a lot about El Nino showing up again this season. El Nino would usually mean less rainfall over winter and spring. The bureau tells us that the likelihood of El Niño developing in 2015 is at least 70%. There have been 26 El Nino’s since 1900 with 17 leading to widespread drought conditions. I’d suggest forgetting about this for now as it shouldn’t have any real impact on the early part of our season. It’s effect will more than likely been seen from July into September.
The sea surface temps in the Indian Ocean are very warm at the moment and this has largely been the reason for the inland rainfall this month across the country. We should see moisture continuing to move across the country from the west over May and June with warmer than average temps, especially the minimum temps. This is not good news for the snowmakers as we like cold clear nights with low humidity/moisture levels to make snow. What looks like happening is plenty of cloudy days/nights with a lot of moisture in the air. It’s been a few years since we had a good run of snowmaking leading into the season and it looks like we might have to wait another year for that cycle to break (although fingers crossed we can get a few cold clear nights here and there before opening).
In short I see a fairly wet May, and June with July being the month for snowfalls as the temps start to drop and the moisture feed from the west dries up a little. Early August should also see some decent snow falling and plenty of cold nights for snowmaking, but it could be a bit too late to have any great impact on an already struggling season.
Pete (aka The Frog)
If publishing any of the above forecast outlook please quote Snowatch.com.au at the source.
Updated: July 1st, 2:15pm
|No Snow||Light Snow||Heavy Snow|
Thredbo -0.9C | Perisher 2.1C | Falls -0.6C | Hotham -2.2C