By Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor
Snow Forecaster & Owner
snowatch.com.au

Snowatch® Early Season Outlook 2025

It is that time again when we look towards the new snow season after two of the worst seasons on record. Season 2024 will go down as once of the worse ones. Season 2023’s snow depth was only 7cm more, so it’s been two years of very ordinary snow. These depths are not the worst recorded, with 2006 only reaching 85cm, 1982-91cm and 1993 only got to 112cm. This shows that we have had bad seasons before and come back. For those that think it’s all over and we will never see deep snow again, remember that 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 all reached well over 2m in snow depth at Spencer’s Creek and 2021 was just below 2m.

How is early 2025 looking?

To come.

What usually happens this time of year?

Usually during May and June we see a lot of large dominating blocking high pressure systems revolving around the southern hemisphere bringing extended periods of dry weather with most potential snow bearing cold fronts being forced south under the mainland. Any snowfalls we see before June usually melts quite quickly, although it can help freeze the ground which helps the snow makers to create a base layer of snow.

So, when will it snow?

Looking at the current charts the next week looks quite mild and warm with temps dropping on the 4^th. There is a chance of light snow falling around the 5^th to 6^th of May. It won’t last long on the ground but will more than likely increase the anxiety levels for the coming season.

Looking a bit further ahead I see temps milder than usual and quite a lot of moisture around which won’t be good for potential snow making leading into the season opening on June 11.

If I had to throw out some dates for potential for snow, I’d say around the 12^th-13^th of May and then a follow up system around the 21st-23rd of May.

In summary

In Summary I see a slow start to the season with limited snow making opportunities and unfortunately not a lot of natural snow. I think this pattern will remain until La Nina weakens more which probably won’t happen until July sometime. As this happens the likelihood of good consistent snowfalls will, and I think the back end of the season from mid-July to September will be quite decent.

All it takes for the season to get into full swing is a couple of decent falls so there is nothing to say an early dump can’t change things before July.

The daily Snowatch® forecasts begin on Monday 2nd May and as per usual you will see a 15 day forecast for each resort as well as a long range outlook for the next month pin pointing any future snowfalls to help in planning your next snow trips.

About Snowatch®

Snowatch.com.au is Australia’s longest running dedicated snow forecasting website. Owned and operated by Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor it is well known for pinpointing snow bearing systems up to four weeks out. Unlike other weather sites Snowatch® does not rely on automated algorithms to pump out snowfall predictions. Pete ‘The Frog’ is up early 7 days a week from May 1^st through to closing weekend in October studying the charts and data before manually inputting forecasts for each resort for the next 15 days as well as adding his thoughts on the long rang outlook. Pete ‘The Frog’ also helps out fellow Snowatcher’s answering emails and facebook messages in regards to queries on coming snowfalls. There is also a 7 day forecast for the New Zealand snowfields around Queenstown and Wanaka for the Aussies who like to keep an eye out over the ditch.

The post After two of the worst snow seasons on record, how are we looking for Season 2025? appeared first on Snowatch.

By Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor
Snow Forecastor & Owner
snowatch.com.au

Snowatch® Early Season Outlook 2021

It is that time again when we look towards a coming snow season in the hope that things will be better than the last, which was a bit of a nightmare. Besides COVID closing the Victorian resorts last year and seeing the NSW resorts operating at 50% capacity the snow depth itself was also very disappointing.  With so much uncertainty leading into the season snowmaking was not able to begin as early as it would normally, so resorts were behind the eight ball when they finally got the go ahead to open. Natural snowfalls were scarce and the max depth in NSW was recorded at Spencer’s Creek at 167.8cm on August 27^th, and with that reading taken up around 1700m it was much less low down, especially from mid mountain at Thredbo.

Ok, so what is on the cards for 2021?

All resorts (apart from Selwyn Snow Resort which is still to be rebuilt after bushfires burnt it to the ground) are planning on opening, but again it will be on a limited scale due to COVID and social distancing. The reason the mountains limitations are a stricter than say going to the MCG or SCG for footy are that the virus spreads more rapidly in colder temperatures. As per last season I’m told you will still be required to use face coverings, which shouldn’t be an issue as it worked fine for those who skied or boarded last year.

Since the drought ended, we have been in a strong La Nina weather pattern which brings above average rainfall and slightly warmer temps. That pattern has since eased a little and we are in an ENSO neutral pattern which I see as a positive. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released their climate overview on April 22 and below are some things to note for the early part of Season 2021:

• May to July rainfall likely to be below average for parts of south-east Australia
• May is likely to be drier than average in parts of south-eastern Australia.
• Maximum temperatures for May to July are likely to be warmer than average Australia wide.
• Minimum temperatures for May to July are likely to be warmer than average for almost all of Australia except the inland south-east.

These scenarios would normally mean that we will see limited opportunities for snow making leading into the opening weekend. What I see is that we will still see periods of cold clear nights in the mountains that will allow for the snow guns to operate as large high pressure systems sit over the SE of the country. Mt Buller has its ‘SnowFactory’ machine already pumping out snow at positive temps, building a stockpile of snow on Bourke Street to be spread out prior to opening weekend.

The ENSO Neutral phase to me is a positive going by past season’s that have begun in this phase. The chance of some early snow is quite high once we see a break in the dominating high pressure systems that are usual for this time of the year.

So when will it snow?

A weak cool change on the 3^rd of May could see some light snow falling about the peaks, nothing to get too excited about though. Things are looking better a bit further out where I see a stronger colder system due to arrive in the mountains around the 11^th-13^th of May. I really like the positioning of this system, just hope the highs don’t strengthen and force these south. If this comes off it may well help the snowmakers to create a base even though we are still a month out from season opening on the 12^th of June.

Looking even further out I also like the look of a strong system that should arrive around the 19^th-23^rd of May.

The one thing that could ruin these calls are if the high pressure systems revolving around the southern hemisphere increase in strength over the next month and force these systems south, which you would normally expect at this time of year. There is a small positive with that in that we would see more cold clear nights for the snow guns to fire up.

So to sum things up I see a pretty good start to the early part leading into the opening weekend. I’ll of course keep updating things on Snowatch® and it won’t be too soon until I should be able to post what I think is in store for the opening weekend. If I had to stick my neck out, I would say we have a good chance of a decent season with consistent snowfalls.

The daily forecasts with 15 day forecasts for each resort as well as the long range outlook will start on tomorrow on May 1^st.

About Snowatch®

Snowatch.com.au is Australia’s longest running dedicated snow forecasting website. Owned and operated by Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor it is well known for pinpointing snow bearing systems up to four weeks out. Unlike other weather sites Snowatch® does not rely on automated algorithms to pump out snowfall predictions. Pete ‘The Frog’ is up early six days a week from May 1^st through to closing weekend in October studying the charts and data before manually inputting forecasts for each resort for the next 15 days as well as adding his thoughts on the long rang outlook. Pete ‘The Frog’ also helps out fellow Snowatcher’s answering emails and facebook messages in regards to queries on coming snowfalls. There is also a 7 day forecast for the New Zealand snowfields around Queenstown and Wanaka for the Aussies who like to keep an eye out over the ditch.

The post Thumbs up or down for Season 2021? appeared first on Snowatch.

By Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor
Snow Forecastor & Owner
snowatch.com.au

It is a season like no other, so how is Covid Season 2020 looking?

(posted: 04/06/20 – 4pm)

2020 had been a year unlike no other, not just for Australia but the world. Australian’s have had to endure, drought, bushfires, floods and then came the COVID-19 global pandemic. Businesses and families in the mountains were already hurting economically well before any thoughts of an upcoming snow season that may well have helped to get things back on track. The devastating news for any regulars of Selwyn Snow Resort was that the resort was completely burnt to the ground and was never going to be open in 2020 (photos below show the destruction).

COVID-19 spreading across Australia in March and increased dramatically in cases during April which had it looking like any thoughts of snow season was a pipe dream at best. The Australian public and businesses did a great job in flattening the curve to an extent that the Federal and State governments of NSW and Victoria have given the OK to run a snow season that will commence from the 22nd of June.

All resorts came together with heads of industry and govt to work on how season 2020 would work with social distancing still to continue until a covid cure can be found. It was never going to be easy work out and there were always going to be plenty of unhappy people. Reduced numbers on the slopes, accommodation to open that doesn’t have communal use facilities, reduced numbers on lifts and the inevitable increase in lift ticket prices to counter any losses selected by ‘click frenzy’ style online selling. To many the only positive is that at least the resorts will be open and there will be skiing and boarding.

Many of course will elect just to give 2020 a miss altogether due to costs and not being guaranteed lifts tickets, others will wait to see if the Trans Tasman bubble opens in July and head over to the South Island skifields of New Zealand. There will also be plenty who are ready and willing to hit the Australian slopes and work with the social distancing protocols that we have come accustomed to.

My job now is to inform on what I think the slightly delayed start to Season 2020 will be like. Will we have plenty of natural snow, no snow at all or enough man made stuff to have limited lifts running.

Early signs were good with some decent snow falling in May and then the first day of Winter produced another drop of natural snow that had everyone hyped for a good season with the usual media outlets dropping the tag that I personally dislike ‘bumper season’. What’s quite normal so early on is that the snow doesn’t hang around long due to warmish temperatures.

This week we have seen some resorts begin to make snow thanks to some cold clear nights. What’s good about this is that the ground was already cool thanks to the thin layer of snow from Monday 1st of June. Weather permitting the snow makers can now work on building a base leading into the season opening.

Now we have good and bad news in regards to what’s coming up leading into the opening weekend. I’ll start with the bad news which is that currently it looks like we will see very little in the way of natural snow falling in the resorts over the next couple of weeks. The southern hemisphere is being dominated by strong high pressure systems that are forcing any potential snow systems to the south under the mainland. And whilst this is not good news for the Australian resorts it is good news for those in the south of New Zealand with the kiwis picking up what we miss. There is a little snow likely in our resorts on the 6th (which will only be a dusting), the 14th to 16th should see some snowfalls mixed in with some showers at the beginning. Opening weekend looks like we might snow some snow around the 23rd-24th and fingers crossed this one brings something decent.

Whilst we don’t look like seeing any really big natural falls for a little while yet we have the next best thing and that is a lot of cold clear nights with light winds coming up that will allow the snow guns to fire for long periods and at least create enough of a base to make sure we do have some runs open and lifts spinning come season opening. Another positive is that we shouldn’t see much of that ugly wet stuff that washes snow away.

OK, we have established that we are likely to start the season with mostly man made snow and a little natural stuff thrown in, but when will be see a season starter dump to really get things moving. On average June is a bit of a write off in regards to natural cover and things usually get going early July. At the moment it looks like that trend will continue. There is a nice cold system due to arrive in the first week of July that looks to have enough juice in it to deliver a cold blast to the mountains that will give us a decent fall of snow. It has a long way to travel, it’s only just passing NZ and still has to revolve around the entire southern hemisphere to reach us, but the size and position looks better than anything coming before it.

Most resorts are still to announce the details of their Covid affected seasons, although Thredbo did come out this week with their plan and copped a bit of a hammering on social media mainly because of the increase in lift tickets and season ticket holders only getting a discount on day tickets. Just remember the resorts would open everything if possible and continue as normal if they could, but unfortunately they still have to pay the same amount of staff to operate lifts, do maintenance, make snow, groom slopes, pay for power etc but have the number of paying customers capped well below normal capacity.

Keep an eye on the Snowatch long range forecast for daily updates on what’s coming over the next month and also the daily 15 day forecasts for each resort. Remember the Snowatch forecasts are the only ones done manually by a human (me) without the use of computer algorithms spitting out amounts that never occur. One tip I will give for those that follow the algorithms, ignore the afternoon updates they give as they inflate the predicted amounts by a lot, stick to the morning run of numbers as they are much closer to the mark. I’ll be keeping an eye out for these high pressure systems to weaken, once they do then it’s game on and the snow systems will head up to the mountains rather than slip under and over the NZ.

Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor

www.snowatch.com.au

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