By Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor
Snow Forecastor & Owner
snowatch.com.au

It is a season like no other, so how is Covid Season 2020 looking?

(posted: 04/06/20 – 4pm)

2020 had been a year unlike no other, not just for Australia but the world. Australian’s have had to endure, drought, bushfires, floods and then came the COVID-19 global pandemic. Businesses and families in the mountains were already hurting economically well before any thoughts of an upcoming snow season that may well have helped to get things back on track. The devastating news for any regulars of Selwyn Snow Resort was that the resort was completely burnt to the ground and was never going to be open in 2020 (photos below show the destruction).

COVID-19 spreading across Australia in March and increased dramatically in cases during April which had it looking like any thoughts of snow season was a pipe dream at best. The Australian public and businesses did a great job in flattening the curve to an extent that the Federal and State governments of NSW and Victoria have given the OK to run a snow season that will commence from the 22nd of June.

All resorts came together with heads of industry and govt to work on how season 2020 would work with social distancing still to continue until a covid cure can be found. It was never going to be easy work out and there were always going to be plenty of unhappy people. Reduced numbers on the slopes, accommodation to open that doesn’t have communal use facilities, reduced numbers on lifts and the inevitable increase in lift ticket prices to counter any losses selected by ‘click frenzy’ style online selling. To many the only positive is that at least the resorts will be open and there will be skiing and boarding.

Many of course will elect just to give 2020 a miss altogether due to costs and not being guaranteed lifts tickets, others will wait to see if the Trans Tasman bubble opens in July and head over to the South Island skifields of New Zealand. There will also be plenty who are ready and willing to hit the Australian slopes and work with the social distancing protocols that we have come accustomed to.

My job now is to inform on what I think the slightly delayed start to Season 2020 will be like. Will we have plenty of natural snow, no snow at all or enough man made stuff to have limited lifts running.

Early signs were good with some decent snow falling in May and then the first day of Winter produced another drop of natural snow that had everyone hyped for a good season with the usual media outlets dropping the tag that I personally dislike ‘bumper season’. What’s quite normal so early on is that the snow doesn’t hang around long due to warmish temperatures.

This week we have seen some resorts begin to make snow thanks to some cold clear nights. What’s good about this is that the ground was already cool thanks to the thin layer of snow from Monday 1st of June. Weather permitting the snow makers can now work on building a base leading into the season opening.

Now we have good and bad news in regards to what’s coming up leading into the opening weekend. I’ll start with the bad news which is that currently it looks like we will see very little in the way of natural snow falling in the resorts over the next couple of weeks. The southern hemisphere is being dominated by strong high pressure systems that are forcing any potential snow systems to the south under the mainland. And whilst this is not good news for the Australian resorts it is good news for those in the south of New Zealand with the kiwis picking up what we miss. There is a little snow likely in our resorts on the 6th (which will only be a dusting), the 14th to 16th should see some snowfalls mixed in with some showers at the beginning. Opening weekend looks like we might snow some snow around the 23rd-24th and fingers crossed this one brings something decent.

Whilst we don’t look like seeing any really big natural falls for a little while yet we have the next best thing and that is a lot of cold clear nights with light winds coming up that will allow the snow guns to fire for long periods and at least create enough of a base to make sure we do have some runs open and lifts spinning come season opening. Another positive is that we shouldn’t see much of that ugly wet stuff that washes snow away.

OK, we have established that we are likely to start the season with mostly man made snow and a little natural stuff thrown in, but when will be see a season starter dump to really get things moving. On average June is a bit of a write off in regards to natural cover and things usually get going early July. At the moment it looks like that trend will continue. There is a nice cold system due to arrive in the first week of July that looks to have enough juice in it to deliver a cold blast to the mountains that will give us a decent fall of snow. It has a long way to travel, it’s only just passing NZ and still has to revolve around the entire southern hemisphere to reach us, but the size and position looks better than anything coming before it.

Most resorts are still to announce the details of their Covid affected seasons, although Thredbo did come out this week with their plan and copped a bit of a hammering on social media mainly because of the increase in lift tickets and season ticket holders only getting a discount on day tickets. Just remember the resorts would open everything if possible and continue as normal if they could, but unfortunately they still have to pay the same amount of staff to operate lifts, do maintenance, make snow, groom slopes, pay for power etc but have the number of paying customers capped well below normal capacity.

Keep an eye on the Snowatch long range forecast for daily updates on what’s coming over the next month and also the daily 15 day forecasts for each resort. Remember the Snowatch forecasts are the only ones done manually by a human (me) without the use of computer algorithms spitting out amounts that never occur. One tip I will give for those that follow the algorithms, ignore the afternoon updates they give as they inflate the predicted amounts by a lot, stick to the morning run of numbers as they are much closer to the mark. I’ll be keeping an eye out for these high pressure systems to weaken, once they do then it’s game on and the snow systems will head up to the mountains rather than slip under and over the NZ.

Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor

www.snowatch.com.au

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By Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor
Snow Forecastor & Owner
snowatch.com.au

A look at the coming snow season for Australia

(posted: 06/05/19 – 10pm)

As per usual at this time of year everyone wants to know what the coming season has in store, and I’m no different. We would all love to see a couple of early dumps before the opening weekend and then consistent top ups each week through to September, but that’s not realistic. So what is?

An average June is considered a bit of a write off, and only for the desperate who don’t mind skiing on mostly man made snow. Most resorts know this and have early season festivals and events planned to fill the void. The resorts have pumped millions of dollars into snowmaking infrastructure over the last 20+ years and it has meant that June can actually have decent skiing and boarding even without natural snow, we just need cold clear nights. I remember below average snowfalls seasons at Thredbo that have seen top to bottom skiing on the Crackenback/Kosi Supertrail from June through to closing weekend in October because of extended periods of cold clear nights from large blocking high pressure systems. 2017 was one of the worst starts to a season on record. Warm early temps and some rain meant there was little to no snowmaking and virtually no natural snow for the whole of June. July saw three dumps and another in early August and the season was in full swing. The snow kept on falling and peaked in late September (much later that the usual mid August peak). Last year the first decent snow was a bit earlier in mid June and peaked early August.

Now to season 2019. The coming snow season will start to get a lot of traction in the media later this week with some decent snow likely to fall in the mountains, but with it still being a month before the season starts it’s unlikely the snow is going to hang around for long. It may help Mt Buller add a bit to their already quite large stockpile of snow thanks to their snow factory technology that makes snow at temps well above zero. This pretty much guarantees them to have at least Bourke Street running for the opening weekend.

Most resorts start to make snow in the third week of May, weather permitting and Perisher a little before that. It wouldn’t surprise me if Perisher was to make an early move and turn on the guns with cold nights forecast for next week after the snowfalls clear, but we will just have to wait and see for that one.

Current weather patterns suggest a drier than average start to the season and also daytime maximum temperatures to be higher than average. This is both good and bad. It means we are not likely get a lot of natural snow but we are likely to see large blocking high pressure systems dominating over the SE of the country. This is fairly normal for this time and year and it should also mean that we should get extended periods of cold night for the snow guns to fire up. With not a lot of rain on the cards early on then it’s quite likely we should see skiing and boarding on the slopes with snowmaking.

The BOM says there is a 70% chance of an El Nino forming towards the end of the season with warm ocean surface temps in the North Pacific, although cool temps at lower depths suggest if El Nino does happen it will be short lived. This shouldn’t really have too much to do with the snow season if it does happen as it will be quite late and probably only weak anyway.

The next month

Early snow this week will increase interest in the coming season but probably won’t have any real bearing on it. Some light snow is possible around the 22nd but it could also be just light showers with some snow up top. At the moment most low pressure systems will slip south just under the mountains. The last week of May is showing some promise for snow, but at this stage I’d say only around 5cm or so, which would be a nice help for the snowmakers to work with.

Early June should see snow around the 3rd-5th with around 5-10cm (fingers crossed for a bit more than that). Following this I see a period of not much snow and unfortunately warmer temps with the occasional shower. So the start of the season from what I can see is that we will be pretty much relying on the snowmakers to fire up to to get runs open.

The high pressure systems look to dominate during mid June and unless we can get a freak dump from somewhere we may be looking at another late start. I see July being another decent one as will August. The highs should weaken early July and let the cold fronts move a bit further north into the mountains and resorts, hopefully early enough for the school holidays, but it may be touch and go.

I do see a lot of similarities with 2017 and 2018 (apart from the mid June first dump last year), although I wouldn’t expect to hit such great heights or also for the snow to keep falling well into late September but I do see it being a bit above average as far as peak depth goes. I’d be looking at around 180-190cm at Spencer’s Creek.

With all that being said, just remember the weather is a fickle thing and we could easily see a cold front slip north and hit the mountains early, it only takes one dump to get things going, it’s just that it’s not very likely looking at the current patterns, charts and previous seasons data.

Keep an eye on the Snowatch long range forecast for daily updates on what coming over the next month and also the daily 15 day forecasts for the resorts.

Here’s to a good season!

The Frog

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