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Thread: snows coming

  1. #1
    Extreme Snowatcher TC's Avatar
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    Default snows coming

    between now and the end of September it will snow
    I wanna go
    Im a vegetarian...I only eat grass fed Beef and Lamb

  2. #2
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Haute Route just after Easter There's always snow somewhere, just gotta chase it
    -- Summer is just a short period of bad skiing --

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    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Thanks for the heads up TC.
    Follow the Snow! snowatch.com.au

  4. #4
    Extreme Snowatcher TC's Avatar
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Good news and bad news
    Ive been blocked from ski.com.au but management didnt block Snowatch
    Take that as you will
    Im a vegetarian...I only eat grass fed Beef and Lamb

  5. #5
    Ski Shop Owner & Equipment Specialist - Voted Best Boot fitter in Australia (SIA Australia Awards 2013) Paul Oberin's Avatar
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Quote Originally Posted by TC View Post
    Good news and bad news
    Ive been blocked from ski.com.au but management didnt block Snowatch
    Take that as you will
    Management know what they are doing, they make all the right decisions it seems.

  6. #6
    Ski Shop Owner & Equipment Specialist - Voted Best Boot fitter in Australia (SIA Australia Awards 2013) Paul Oberin's Avatar
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Snow certainly is coming where I am at present, I was going outside to take a short video, but just sticking my head out the door was more than enough, so no video.

    Colorado is quite windy and snowing just nicely.

  7. #7
    Extreme Snowatcher TC's Avatar
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    Default Re: snows coming

    still very warm in sydney
    Im a vegetarian...I only eat grass fed Beef and Lamb

  8. #8
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Quote Originally Posted by Swede View Post
    Haute Route just after Easter There's always snow somewhere, just gotta chase it
    Less than two weeks back from the Euro snow and already have the shakes Bring on the SNOW!!

    Posted a TR for our Haute Route in the BC thread...

    http://www.snowatch.com.au/forum/thr...-10th-Apr-2016
    Last edited by Swede; 28-04-2016 at 08:13 PM.
    -- Summer is just a short period of bad skiing --

  9. #9
    Extreme Snowatcher TC's Avatar
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    Default Re: snows coming

    ustralia's snow season is notoriously fickle. Some years bring deep cover lasting for nearly six months (such as in 1964). Others barely cover the grass for a few weeks (such as in 2006). The difference between a good season and a bad one may be a single weather event, such as the so-called Snowmageddon in 2014, which dropped around a metre of snow in less than a week.
    The high variability of the snow season means the Bureau of Meteorology doesn't currently produce a seasonal outlook for snow (as we do for temperature and rainfall). However, we know that the same climate drivers that affect Australia's weather also influence our snowfall.
    El Niņo and La Niņa

    The best way to see how snowfall varies from year to year is to use data from Spencers Creek in the New South Wales Snowy Mountains, a pristine site 1,830 metres above sea level. Past studies show that these data tend to correlate with snow more generally across the mainland alpine regions, but they don't always match the cover at lower elevations.
    First, let's look at El Niņo. We are coming out of one of the strongest El Niņo events on record. During El Niņo years, rainfall is typically below average across eastern Australia during the snow season, and temperatures are warmer during the day. The maximum snow depth averages about 35cm less than the all-years average, while the period with more than 100cm is about two weeks shorter.
    El Niņo's opposite, La Niņa, usually brings above-average rainfall, but this doesn't necessarily mean more snow. Temperatures can sometimes be too high and hence precipitation may fall as rain even at higher elevations, which can actually decrease snow depths.
    This has happened more frequently in recent decades as a result of climate change. Seven of the past eight La Niņa years have produced lower maximum snow depths than average.
    Historically, neutral years have had more consistent good snow depths than either El Niņo or La Niņa years.
    It is important to consider these drivers as tilting the odds towards a particular outcome, rather than guaranteeing it. While about half the historical El Niņo years have had well-below-average snow, three El Niņo years had well-above-average snow depths: 1972, 1977 and 1991. That said, no recent El Niņo year has produced good snow, with these winters tending to be particularly dry.
    Maximum snow depths for all years 1954–2014, segregated by a) ENSO, b) IOD and c) SAM. Average snow depths throughout the season, with 90% confidence interval shaded, segregated by a) ENSO, b) IOD and c) SAM. The other players

    To make things more complicated, El Niņo and La Niņa don't act alone.
    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may actually be a clearer indicator of snow depth. Similarly to El Niņo, positive IOD years tend to be drier than average across southeastern and central Australia, leading to lower snow depths. They are particularly dry over the Australian Alps when El Niņo and positive IOD events coincide.
    Unsurprisingly, snow depths in late winter and spring are also lower when the IOD is positive. Snow depths are generally higher than average during years with a negative IOD.
    The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has the strongest relationship with snowfall. Cold fronts and low pressure systems are the main weather systems that bring our snow, and the SAM indicates whether the westerlies that bring this weather are closer to Australia or the poles.
    Negative SAM brings the fronts, rain and snow further north, while during a positive SAM these fronts move further south. The average (mean) maximum snow depth in negative SAM years is a cool 240cm, almost 80cm higher than in positive years. Unfortunately, accurate forecasts for SAM are still only possible for two to three weeks ahead, which means that this measure is more of a diagnostic rather than a forecasting tool.
    Of course, climate change also plays a role. Both maximum snow depth and total snow accumulation have declined over the past 25 years. The reduction in snow cover is most obvious at lower elevations and at the end of the ski season when warm spring rains can hasten the melt.
    However, while it has been a few decades since the last 3-metre year (in 1992), there are still above-average seasons when the weather and climate is right, most recently in 2012.
    Annual maximum snow depth at Spencers Creek, 1954–2015, with a linear trend line shown Less moisture? Never fear, snowmaking is here

    El Niņo, positive IOD and positive SAM periods all typically lead to less moisture in the air, which partly explains the lower snowfalls. But with less cloud to trap in the heat at night, they also have lower minimum temperatures.
    Luckily for snowriders, these are also the ingredients for good snowmaking and can contribute to less snow melting. The ability to harvest snow and move it where needed can also allow ski resorts to moderate the impacts of average or below-average natural snow cover on skiers and snowboarders.
    What's ahead in 2016?

    While forecasts for the Southern Annular Mode only have skill for a few weeks ahead, and it's also too early to forecast what may happen in the Indian Ocean, we can look to the Pacific.
    The 2015 El Niņo is in decline and neutral conditions are expected to prevail by winter. For 2016, the most likely outcomes are either neutral or La Niņa conditions, a hopeful early sign for 2016 snowfalls.
    Finally, a word of caution. Don't get too excited by early snowfalls, or indeed sell your skis if winter starts with no cover: two of the best seasons on record – 1956 and 1981 – had no snow at all at the start of June, while two of the poorest seasons – 2006 and 1965 – had 20cm and 60cm, respectively, of snow on the ground before the Queen's Birthday weekend. Early-season cover isn't always the guide we might think it is.
    While we know the Australian snow season can certainly have large variations in its snow cover, knowing the state of Australia's climate drivers can give a heads-up on what the season may be like. But remember, there are always exceptions to the rules.
    Im a vegetarian...I only eat grass fed Beef and Lamb

  10. #10
    Extreme Snowatcher TC's Avatar
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    Im a vegetarian...I only eat grass fed Beef and Lamb

  11. #11
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Yes, but then there is 2000

  12. #12
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Looking at the cams right now - the snow is HERE
    Do it the snow way!

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    Default Re: snows coming

    The best is still to come.
    Follow the Snow! snowatch.com.au

  14. #14
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Looking good this morning yet how long will it survive?

  15. #15
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    Default Re: snows coming

    forecast models backflipped this morning and show the moisture not reaching the mountains for the next front, should only see some light snow falls.
    Follow the Snow! snowatch.com.au

  16. #16
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    Default Re: snows coming

    I know it's early but just looking at that - going what could have been...
    Do it the snow way!

  17. #17
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    Default Re: snows coming

    The cold air hit Qld last night. -4 at Stanthorpe, 0 at Ipswich and single digits for Brissy. Love those brisk starts in the morning.
    Do it the snow way!

  18. #18
    Beginner Snowatcher Marcus's Avatar
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    Default Re: snows coming

    So Frog, you dont think there will be any snow this week, the BOM is suggesting snow, so what is your take on it. Cheers

  19. #19
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Possibly some up high but not enough to stay on the ground unfortunately. The BOM will put up a snow icon even if the snow is a above 1800m.
    Follow the Snow! snowatch.com.au

  20. #20
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    Default Re: snows coming

    Pb is looking nice atm. Prob won't stay on ground after but nice to see.

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