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  1. #1
    Intermediate Snowatcher
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    Default Hello Mr EL NINO

    Last edited by darrend; 12-05-2015 at 05:38 PM.

  2. #2
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    I don't think it will have too much to do with June or early July but might kick in after that meaning more dry weather. Could be a good thing for snowmaking though with less moisture in the air.
    Follow the Snow! snowatch.com.au

  3. #3
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    FROM THE BOM:

    El Niņo in the tropical Pacific

    Issued on 12 May 2015

    The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niņo. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niņo status.

    El Niņo–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niņo levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niņo thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niņo is likely to persist in the coming months.

    International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niņo thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.

    El Niņo is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the current May to July outlook suggests much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average. This is because a warmer-than-average Indian Ocean is dominating this outlook. El Niņo is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate during the second half of the year.

    Next update expected on 26 May 2015
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  4. #4
    Ski Shop Owner & Equipment Specialist - Voted Best Boot fitter in Australia (SIA Australia Awards 2013) Paul Oberin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Quote: "However, the current May to July outlook suggests much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average."

    If this is the case we should have a very good season assuming when it is wet, it is also cold enough for snow, then in August if we don't have a good base, they should be able to make snow with the cold dry air.

    Early indications are we should have a pretty good season just like last year.

  5. #5
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    El Nino doesn't usually fully kick in to July-August. The problem is that it may be too warm for snow and we just get wet and mild days with high humidity that is not good for snowmaking. We just need one or two good dumps in June to get things going.
    Follow the Snow! snowatch.com.au

  6. #6
    Beginner Snowatcher
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Boooo to you el Nino!
    10 days booked from 8th Aug. Now wondering if I should pay balance for season pass?
    Any thought out there?

  7. #7
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Just because we are moving into El Nino doesn't necessarily mean we are in for a bad season. We have had some good el nino seasons, it's just that on average the majority are not good.
    Follow the Snow! snowatch.com.au

  8. #8
    Beginner Snowatcher
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Quote Originally Posted by The Frog View Post
    Just because we are moving into El Nino doesn't necessarily mean we are in for a bad season. We have had some good el nino seasons, it's just that on average the majority are not good.
    Glass half full then. Thanks Frog.

  9. #9
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    From the BOM
    http://www.news.com.au/technology/en...-1227352170302

    * Frost increases in El Niņo years in cooler months in eastern Australia because clearer skies contain less daytime heat and lead to reduced minimum temperatures

    * Between 15 and 30 per cent more frost days in El Niņo years than average in northern Victoria and southern NSW, affecting agriculture


    * Australia’s record low temperature of -23C at Charlotte Pass, NSW, on June 29, 1994, occurred during a strong El Niņo
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  10. #10
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Another interesting stat:

    REDUCED WINTER SNOWFALL:
    * The four lowest recorded peak snow depths in Australia’s alpine country occurred in El Niņo years, including severe drought years in 1982 and 2006
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  11. #11
    Intermediate Snowatcher
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Quote Originally Posted by Kappy854 View Post
    Boooo to you el Nino!
    10 days booked from 8th Aug. Now wondering if I should pay balance for season pass?
    Any thought out there?
    I dont prebook ski holidays in OZ anymore,,,Its just to unreliable for snow cover. Will not pay top dollar in supposedly peak season times when the snow conditions are not comparable to PEAK conditions.

  12. #12
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    I always book ahead but after spending a week at Club Med Malaysia with the family last month we may now change our yearly week holiday to the tropics and just do weekends here in the mountains....was cheaper too.
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  13. #13
    Extreme Snowatcher TC's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    pooh bottom this is a real shame
    Im a vegetarian...I only eat grass fed Beef and Lamb

  14. #14
    Extreme Snowatcher
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Hopefully wont dent the snow season too much.
    Winter is here!

  15. #15
    Extreme Snowatcher TC's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    well
    im not going
    Im a vegetarian...I only eat grass fed Beef and Lamb

  16. #16
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    We could still have a great season.
    Follow the Snow! snowatch.com.au

  17. #17
    Extreme Snowatcher
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Any plans to take the tribe skiing overseas?
    Do it the snow way!

  18. #18

    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Anyone remember 1991 have a look at the snow peak that was a el nino year!!

  19. #19
    Snowatch Owner & Snow Forecastor
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    Quote Originally Posted by chunky View Post
    Any plans to take the tribe skiing overseas?
    no, not as yet. Our family holidays have been in the cold snow since the kids were born (now 10 and 7). Now we have been to Club Med I think we will try more as it was awesome (next time Mauritius). Love not getting a bill at the end of your stay for drinks and food. All is inclusive so you can eat and drink as much as you want. Flights from Sydney to KL then another 45 min flight, resort bus transfer both ways, 7 nights accommodation for 2 adults and 2 kids in 2 separate rooms, all food and drinks included, sailing, kayaking, archery, rock climbing, trapeze, tennis, gym all included + 3 private beaches....all for what we would pay for a week in Thredbo village.

    That being said, we will still get some skiing in for sure this year, couldn't miss out completely.
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  20. #20
    Extreme Snowatcher TC's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hello Mr EL NINO

    im not going anyway...Jo is finishing her nurses qualification so i need to be home
    Im a vegetarian...I only eat grass fed Beef and Lamb

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