August 09 Snow Fall prediction

[JSJ]

I was informed yesterday that there is a predicted huge dump at the end of August.. the biggest since 1950 :eek:
Frog did hint as such in his long range forecast
quote "August should see long periods of cold with a couple of nice dumps between consistent light snowfalls, one of these dumps could be very significant" unquote
How exciting!!! graemlins/snow_cool.gif
Has anyone heard the same?

[Podlettte]

what does the biggest dump since 1950 constitute? time frame? cm? and biggest dump where cooma, bombala?

I'm being a pedant I know, but that's pretty vague.

it's like saying this fall of snow we had after anzac day was the earliest since 2003, when the fall last year was only hours different.

[ 04. May 2009, 03:10 PM: Message edited by: Podlettte ]

[The Frog]

I can remember dumps of well over 1m so it would have to be around 2m I'm guessing....fingers crossed. smile.gif

By the way is that from the Holton experimental model?

[ 04. May 2009, 04:42 PM: Message edited by: The Frog ]

[bdenny4]

Oooooh I'd like one first week of August and last week of August please - set my trips up nicely

[Dacer]

hmm, that is some very precise long range forecasting, how could that possibly be predicted considering our trouble with forecasting anything more than a week ahead.

[karen97]

I would like a huge dump on the weekend on the Perisher Slide please :D graemlins/skier.gif graemlins/snow_alert.gif

[John Deere]

I could probably russell one up Kaz if I had a decent Chilli Con Carne the night before!!! A dodgy Vindaloo may also do it!

[hakenspit]

Originally posted by John Deere:
I could probably russell one up Kaz if I had a decent Chilli Con Carne the night before!!! A dodgy Vindaloo may also do it! Or you could try a jar and a half of metamucil.... :eek:

[karen97]

Originally posted by hakenspit:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by John Deere:
I could probably russell one up Kaz if I had a decent Chilli Con Carne the night before!!! A dodgy Vindaloo may also do it! Or you could try a jar and a half of metamucil.... :eek: </font>[/QUOTE]Explosive decompression graemlins/big_laugh.gif

[JSJ]

Originally posted by The Frog:
I can remember dumps of well over 1m so it would have to be around 2m I'm guessing....fingers crossed. smile.gif

By the way is that from the Holton experimental model? Not sure what chart/model is used.. but the source came from a Perisher staff member and it came directly from whatever chart/model the company purchase and rely on for company purposes...

And Podlette.. I didn't hang around long enough to discuss specifics and go into great depths.. but if we could look as far as predicting exactly how many cms are going to fall at this early stage, I guess we could look back and compare statistics more precisely.. but that aint gonna happen because my crystal ball has ran out of batteries.

[The Frog]

It's probably from the holton experimental forecast that he has posted up saying 390cm base this year...Perishr posted it on their blog page a while ago. Purely experimental, and he did the same thing last year with very mixed results.

[pow pig]

Well, I for one hope he has learnt from his mistakes of last year...

390cm!! That's a BIG call. But if this late August dump comes through with over a metre and a half of fresh on a 2 metre base, I suppose it's quite feasable. And most are anticipating a 2 metre base by then...

[Podlettte]

if it comes through it'll be 92 all over again hopefully :D they were skiing on antons at christmas, the t bar was open!

[ssar]

Originally posted by bdenny4:
Oooooh I'd like one first week of August and last week of August please - set my trips up nicely Yes, I hear that is on the cards.
Lesse good snowfall and frequent very cold temps right across the snowy mountain regions during late July & early August 2009.

Mmm. snow.

[Snowmunch]

argh not again.. last year i got scr3wed up when i went during the 1st week of july and was skiing on grass patches. now i m going mid july, hope its good. would love to go august but got uni.. :( any one else missing out on that 'august dump' ??

[pow pig]

Not if I can help it...

[Rhistman]

Hi All, long time no chat. On the Topic of snow this year in Aus i also got the word from all the old guys there would be a lot of snow this year in Australia(On a separate topic the snow i had in Hakuba this year was terrible).

Why lots of Snow, all the old guys (in there 60s) have a simple theory. They said to me - There is water is Lake Eyre, every time there is water in lake Eyre it is a massive year for snow in Australia (if any one can statically prove this please do).

So a quick think about it - heaps of evaporation, moisture in the air, cooler air, moisture filled (highs) coming from the north, meeting with lows for the Antarctic reaching up much higher than the last five years more constantly right over the Australian Alps. Dump.

So well will see if it becomes true, Water in lake air = Lots of snow.

[The Frog]

I remember they were saying the same thing about lake eyre this time last year and we had NO snow in the first four weeks of June at all.

[Rhistman]

Well there goes that Theory.. :)..

Lets change it for our kids.
Its 2 years of water in Lake Eyre and there is good snow.

[spaz]

Lake Eyre is nowhere near full, sure there is water in it and the levels are going up. But it has water in it often for year following year.
From the graphs I saw in comparison to good snow years the corresponding water level needs to be high.

[skichic]

I saw a black cockatoo the other day..... graemlins/cold.gif

[Bear]

Was it flying backwards SC? ;)

[Swede]

My prediction for snow in August is that it will snow, it will come from above and it will be white. :D

[Barcoo]

Originally posted by SC:
I saw a black cockatoo the other day..... graemlins/cold.gif The last time (the only time) I saw a Black Cockatoo was in Thredbo Vill and It dumped that night. It was 2nd week Aug 2000,

[tammiodo]

Originally posted by Swede:
My prediction for snow in August is that it will snow, it will come from above and it will be white. :D That is Kwality forecasting there Swede! I'm impressed!

[Swede]

Originally posted by tammiodo:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Swede:
My prediction for snow in August is that it will snow, it will come from above and it will be white. :D That is Kwality forecasting there Swede! I'm impressed! </font>[/QUOTE]We'll come back to this thread at the end of Aug and see if i was right ;)

[BrumbyJack]

I tell you what I did see that I haven't seen for a while.

Gang Gang Cockatoos.

The week before the snow there was heaps of them around Dainers Gap, haven't seen any for ages!!! Cool birds graemlins/snow_cool.gif

[pow pig]

Dunno about Gang Gang sightings meaning much, but they do prefer lower altitudes during winter in general.

Some are seen throughout winter at Falls Creek at 1500m, but maybe the alpine flock is heading down low this season because of a heavy winter coming....

[BrumbyJack]

I didn't say they did mean anything!!! Just I hadn't seen them for ages.

[Podlettte]

Gang gangs are such cool birds :D

[pow pig]

Sorry BJ, I didn't mean to imply that you said that it means something....

I'm just wonderin' (and hoping like hell!) if it does mean a "bumper" season is just around the corner!

And yep, really cool birds. Up there on my list of fave birds along with Yellow-tailed Black Cockatoos and Crimson Rosellas.

I have a pair of Crimsons that either live in my suburban backyard, or like to hang around in it a lot. They're there most mornings of late.

[The Frog]

I prefer Sea Eagles.

[Swede]

Originally posted by The Frog:
I prefer Sea Eagles. They are flying very low this year, so does that mean heaps of snow?? tongue.gif ;)

[Barcoo]

seeing really big penguins means there is lots of snow tongue.gif

[Prophet Rider]

Originally posted by Rhistman:
Hi All, long time no chat. On the Topic of snow this year in Aus i also got the word from all the old guys there would be a lot of snow this year in Australia(On a separate topic the snow i had in Hakuba this year was terrible).

Why lots of Snow, all the old guys (in there 60s) have a simple theory. They said to me - There is water is Lake Eyre, every time there is water in lake Eyre it is a massive year for snow in Australia (if any one can statically prove this please do).

So a quick think about it - heaps of evaporation, moisture in the air, cooler air, moisture filled (highs) coming from the north, meeting with lows for the Antarctic reaching up much higher than the last five years more constantly right over the Australian Alps. Dump.

So well will see if it becomes true, Water in lake air = Lots of snow. Maybe we should all forget about using our rain water tanks for the garden and go fill up this Lake Eyre before June

[ 06. May 2009, 04:25 PM: Message edited by: Prophet Rider ]