Lid off it?

[DHS]

:snow_alert:Can I yet? What say ye mister Fwog?

[Mizu Kuma]

I don't think that lid is a tight fit, DHS!

[Coopski]

I dunno yet DHS. Us NSW folk still aren't looking the goods so I'm not sure we can share your enthusiasm (mind you I'm always happy for people to get snow...then again I'll probably be jealous if Vic gets lots and nsw nothing :-)
I might wait for the fat lady to sing on this one.... Should I warm up my voice!! ;-) ha!

[CycloneSteve]

Come on NSW resorts!!!!

[DHS]

I don't think that lid is a tight fit, DHS!

Yes, a little something snuck out. :rolleyes:

[Mazza]

STOP TEASING DHS................I will wait till tomorrow mornings 1-7 day forcast and then check cams for verification b4 I start getting excited.....

[DHS]

Lid is off now. It WILL start snowing at Hotham in the next couple of hours and keep going. I am predicting 15-25cm of fresh by morning. The system is tracking east with winds now SW at Mt Gambier and here at home. The rain over Melbourne at the moment is spinning and heading in a ENE direction. Currently raining in Bendigo and heading in an ENE direction. Precip seemed to dissapate after Adelaide and jump ahead to central Vic. Very interesting. Lots of rain over Mt Gambier which should hit the Alps tomorrow. More still coming through Adelaide too. Too much to say and explain. In a nutshell, IT'S ON LIKE DONKEY KONG!!

[CycloneSteve]

What about NSW resorts? Any love?

[JoshM]

Thats a big call DHS!! Not sure whether moisture is gonna catch the resorts BawBaw may do ok

[Dacer]

Well, temps are up, hovering around 0/-1 at perisher and so far this season, higher temperatures have usually preceded precipitation. Anyway, in this case, humidity on the way up means there's something coming....shame it'll probably only amount to a light fog with the odd frozen flake.

[DHS]

Should be some. Prob won't start there till early hours of the morning. I must warn you though, I tend to get over excited and optomism is my middle name. ;)

[DHS]

Thats a big call DHS!! Not sure whether moisture is gonna catch the resorts BawBaw may do ok

Have a look at the latest radar image. See how it is tracking and also intensifying

[CycloneSteve]

Hmmmm could be in for a looooong night then. Good then I am getting up at 4:30 to watch Spain destroy Portugal.

[Coopski]

Should be some. Prob won't start there till early hours of the morning. I must warn you though, I tend to get over excited and optomism is my middle name. ;)

Love it DHS. I see your posts here and over "there" and I must say I can picture you sat in front of your pc with 8 screens open, each with a different weather map open watchin this baby spin. Love your enthusiasm...now we just need all you folk down south to blow mighty hard and push this thing north so nsw resorts get some love too!! :-)

[Mazza]

Hmmmm DHS V"s Mr Frog, this is the Snow state of origin except Vic V's NSW i dont care if Vic wins as long as NSW gets 20cm+..... everything crossed here..... see what the morning and the next few days bring......

[CycloneSteve]

Oh great ANOTHER loss for NSW...this time at the hands of the Mexicans.

[Podlettte]

shaping up to be better than the real state of origin Mazza!

[DHS]

Hmmmm DHS V"s Mr Frog, this is the Snow state of origin except Vic V's NSW i dont care if Vic wins as long as NSW gets 20cm+..... everything crossed here..... see what the morning and the next few days bring......

Oh no, I'm not putting myself up against Frog. If I had to post a forecast in the morning there wouldn't have very little, if any snow in it. Just watch the maps and the models throughout the day and call it as I see it. The Frog is KING!!

[John Deere]

Lid is off now. It WILL start snowing at Hotham in the next couple of hours and keep going. I am predicting 15-25cm of fresh by morning. The system is tracking east with winds now SW at Mt Gambier and here at home. The rain over Melbourne at the moment is spinning and heading in a ENE direction. Currently raining in Bendigo and heading in an ENE direction. Precip seemed to dissapate after Adelaide and jump ahead to central Vic. Very interesting. Lots of rain over Mt Gambier which should hit the Alps tomorrow. More still coming through Adelaide too. Too much to say and explain. In a nutshell, IT'S ON LIKE DONKEY KONG!!

OK....is the lid back on now?

[pow pig]

10-15cm and snow down to 900m at Lake Mountain and Donna Buang, but only a few cm at Hotham and Falls, and just a dusting in NSW.

Maybe the lid is half on, half off???;)

[John Deere]

15cm at LM is like getting 15cm in the desert....blardy useless! ;)

[Mizu Kuma]

Like coops said, 'love the enthusiasm'!

Ya like a kid in a candy shop, DHS. Keep bustin that lid off, when ever ya feel the need, for some pressure release! Ahhh, loving life is what it's all about!

[Eisbear]

There was a light dusting just above Bogong village this morning and it was looking nice up past Howmans gap. I'd say Falls (Village) got at least 5-7cm over night and it has snowed on and off all mornig. I reckon I may have to scrape off the board and have a bit of a slide in the next day or so :)

[D-Dog]

should hit thredbo and perisher in around 2hrs only a bit though 5cms maybe but better than nothing

[Mizu Kuma]

should hit thredbo and perisher in around 2hrs only a bit though 5cms maybe but better than nothing

By the look of the cams, Dog, it is rollin in now! Was that dust in the village square there this morn?

[The Frog]

DHS, have a look at the 'possible' ecl feed for later next week for NSW. Is one to watch for sure.

[Mizu Kuma]

DHS, have a look at the 'possible' ecl feed for later next week for NSW. Is one to watch for sure.

Now your lids open, Frog! :D

Talkin shop in front of the customers is downright cruel! :unsure:

[The Frog]

Could be a lot of rain or could be a lot of snow...flip of the coin at this stage.

[cin]

the coin has landed on the wrong side too many times lately, bout time we hit the jackpot!

[BlueHue]

DHS, have a look at the 'possible' ecl feed for later next week for NSW. Is one to watch for sure.

I saw that. Will we want the lid on or off it I wonder cause either way its going to need a big lid.

[Total punter]

ECL = Double edged sword for TP.......

Lots of snow before my trip down vs competing in an offshore sailing race (ECL's aren't fun)

Snow wins - we may get hammered but the white stuff the next week will be worth it

[Mazza]

Still Waiting.........

[Eisbear]

I saw that. Will we want the lid on or off it I wonder cause either way its going to need a big lid.

Ooooh! The Big Lid the Big Lid ! :happy::D

[Eisbear]

heres a taste...
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=lf#!/photo.php?pid=6280495&id=573679477
was snowing lightly when I left at 7pm

[DHS]

DHS, have a look at the 'possible' ecl feed for later next week for NSW. Is one to watch for sure.
Yeah saw this, looks like a pineapple express though. Could maybe get some elephant snot out of it. Don't really like the setup at the moment. Love the look of the 12th onwards though

[Mazza]

Yeah saw this, looks like a pineapple express though. Could maybe get some elephant snot out of it. Don't really like the setup at the moment. Love the look of the 12th onwards though
Well I guess Half way through the School Holidays will be be good for the Fams going on the 2nd week of the Holidays....

[CycloneSteve]

lol define "pineapple express"??

[Podlettte]

A Pineapple Express is where a fast moving warm system comes through bringing r@!^ not snow.

[DHS]

lol define "pineapple express"??

What pods said. Usually starts from up QLD and steams on down into NSW and Vic. Had a closer look at it all today and I think this could deliver some..........LID ON IT ;)

[cin]

This no snow falling thing is making me sad :frown:

[Legolas]

My hubby is calling 06!!!!! Boooooo

[The Frog]

My hubby is calling 06!!!!! Boooooo

Your hubby should know that in 2006 it wasn't cold enough in June to make snow. This season is far ahead of 2006

[Polaris]

My hubby is calling 06!!!!! Boooooo

Hubby deserves a whipping and a flogging in unison.
I'm sure you will be up to the task ;)

[Legolas]

Oh mr leee:eek: eeeegs

[Mizu Kuma]

Boooooo


Oh mr leee:eek: eeeegs

I see that unnerving stutter has caught on! :D

[John Deere]

'06 had a better base at the same point in the season! Grass in July = not good!

[The Frog]

I'm not skiing til second week of August and have been saving all the snowfalls til just before then, sorry.

[John Deere]

Nice....it will be like 26 Sept last year...1m uncompacted on grass :woohoo:

[SA]

Nothing wrong with that :D

[John Deere]

Character building on the Piste skis!

[ausi ski bum]

My first weekend skiing this weekend, spending three nights up there and I have a week early August as well after three weeks in Japan Feb March, that might do me.

[DHS]

Nothing like 06. At least we've had the potential for it to snow with the fronts moving through. It is only the very start of July. If we get to about 20 July with not much of a base, could be cause to break out the worry pills.

[The Frog]

I think everyone has missed this mornings long range forecast.

[JoshM]

weather systems that have come through in past weeks seem to be really good offering falls of 10cm+ but seem to fizz as they get closer to the Alps or they just dont work out our luck has to change sometime doesn't it??

[The Frog]

this is is set up totally different, has a cold feed from south and moisture to the north that should mix together, all we have had lately is the cold and not much moisture. I'm pretty confident of this one coming through.

[DHS]

this is is set up totally different, has a cold feed from south and moisture to the north that should mix together, all we have had lately is the cold and not much moisture. I'm pretty confident of this one coming through.
All in the timing. Looks like the cold pool could arrive in time. Probably even cold enough before it arrives for some snow up top. Looking the goods Frog. Here's hoping your July preseason prediction comes off.

[Silverwitch]

I think we lost the lid??:cry:

I mean the whole jar!

[Legolas]

really?

[CycloneSteve]

OK, I had to share this with you, it cracked me up. My two year old just came to me with a little tub of kids yoghurt and asked me to open it for him.
His exact words in his two year old talk "Lid off it Daddy?"
:D

[DHS]

Lid is firmly on now. Damned tupperware carp, never works as it should. ;)
:big_laugh: @ Cyclone Steve.

[DHS]

this is is set up totally different, has a cold feed from south and moisture to the north that should mix together, all we have had lately is the cold and not much moisture. I'm pretty confident of this one coming through.
Noone seems to like it, but this could just be the "dump" we've been waiting for. One of the gurus over the other side has posted a comparison in regard to an amazing dump of snow in 2003 and the current setup of the prognosis charts. Maybe......

[Mizu Kuma]

Now the Lids off again?

This thread should be called the 'Lolly Jar'! :unsure:

[DHS]

Well it is called lid off it? Not, lid on it.
Here are the charts as mentioned
The first 4 (black and white ones) are actual charts analysing what occured. In a nutshell major dumpage from the afternoon of the second chart. The colour chart is what is predicted for Monday. Very similar to the first chart of these.
781780783782784

[Mazza]

All I can see are Squigly Lines HAHAHA.......The first Chart and the coloured chart are very similar indeed.... I believe the 2003 Model delivered 60Cm+ over a two to three day period.If the model is of any indication we should see Snow From Tuesday to Thursday... Well I hope it comes through and delivers the goods....... and not a Pineapple Express...Just in time for me to go skiing that weekend....

[CycloneSteve]

Dammit I hope so, especially for Tuesday. It is not looking pleasant at the moment with possibly 10-20mm of non-skiable precipitation...

[The Frog]

Cola charts now looking better for the 14th...
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus2.144hr.png
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus3.144hr.png

[DHS]

Good totals for NSW and low level snow for Vic.

[Belski]

Thanks Frog & DHS, you have just given me hope when I had just about given up. Going to PB on the 17th for a week. Want to ski the real stuff not man made. Still feel a bit sick in the stomach though.:unsure:

[D-Dog]

those cola charts do look good, what are the chances this will come off, even if it is only half as good as 2003 that would still rescue the season.

[Mizu Kuma]

What about the High that this one is bringin in? :eek:

[DHS]

What about the High that this one is bringin in? :eek:

Highs can be extremely advantageous if in the right position. As long as that one sitting SE of WA doesn't try and stretch across our big brown land too much, it's on!!

[The Frog]

todays charts indicating 20cm+ on Wednesday after the rain.

[Eisbear]

ooooh Frog - that would be our first real dump of the season. Its almost too much to hope for......

[Rosko]

WOOT WOOT :)

[DHS]

I'm calling it now, after some prefrontal on Tuesday we should see the temps drop pukage abound. It looks to me like we could get 40cm or more by the time Thursday is done.

[Silverwitch]

I am hoping it comes off as we will be there tomorrow for the week! Wednesday sounds huge at this moment in time! Hopefully the forcated rain turns to snow also!

[DHS]

I am hoping it comes off as we will be there tomorrow for the week! Wednesday sounds huge at this moment in time! Hopefully the forcated rain turns to snow also!
Can't see the prefrontal being all snow, but stranger things have happened. Probably 10-20mm prefrontal is my guess

[CycloneSteve]

Is the 10-20mm prefrontal going to damage the cover that is there much?

[DHS]

Might not be much cover there to damage after today/tonight/tomorrow. Hotham is getting hammered with rain atm. So is Buller and Falls.

[Mazza]

Might not be much cover there to damage after today/tonight/tomorrow. Hotham is getting hammered with rain atm. So is Buller and Falls.
Yea but what about NSW.....?

[CycloneSteve]

Yea but what about NSW.....?

Yeah sorry, it was NSW I was referring too.

[The Frog]

Need the charts to look positive tomorrow before really being confident in this one. The charts at the moment indicate 20-40cm easy, but still a while away.

[Mizu Kuma]

Need the charts to look positive tomorrow before really being confident in this one. The charts at the moment indicate 20-40cm easy, but still a while away.

Need the charts... Get the chartsfrog, Need the chartsfrog... Get the chartsfrog, Need the chartsfrog... Get the chartsfrog! (Cmon Snowatchers, sing the Chant to Oh Howareya, Nice tomeetya, Oh Howareya, Nice tomeetya, Oh Howareya........) :dance:

[CycloneSteve]

Need the charts... Get the chartsfrog, Need the chartsfrog... Get the chartsfrog, Need the chartsfrog... Get the chartsfrog! (Cmon Snowatchers, sing the Chant to Oh Howareya, Nice tomeetya, Oh Howareya, Nice tomeetya, Oh Howareya........) :dance:

How about we don't and say we did :D

[Mizu Kuma]

How about we don't and say we did :D

Yeah! Welllllll, I wasn't really gonna do it Cyclone! :unsure:

[JSJ]

Yeah! Welllllll, I wasn't really gonna do it Cyclone! :unsure:

oh man :frown: I was all geared up.. stripped off ready to sing and dance loud and proud to the snow lords *sighs&putsclothesbackon*

[Mizu Kuma]

:giggle:

Is it too late?

[chunky]

Quietly confident but at a lot can happen in 4 days.

[Mizu Kuma]

oh man :frown: I was all geared up.. stripped off ready to sing and dance loud and proud to the snow lords *sighs&putsclothesbackon*


:giggle:

Is it too late?


Quietly confident but at a lot can happen in 4 days.

You thinkin about joinin in too chunky? :unsure:

[Legolas]

Christ! The suspense is killing me!

... So is the thought of half the forum running around naked and singing.

[Mizu Kuma]

Christ! The suspense is killing me!

... So is the thought of half the forum running around naked and singing.

Stay with us Legs, Don't look into the light!

[DHS]

Yeah sorry, it was NSW I was referring too.

Yes NSW has copped a beating too

[CycloneSteve]

Damn...put the lid back on please DHS. I can't bear to look....

[Mizu Kuma]

I think it's got a leak now! Anyone got a roll of duct tape and some silastic?

[The Frog]

Still looking good.

[The Frog]

http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=grads/gfs/wz.gfs.vic.mslp.96.png

[IAB]

Not sure if Weatherzone update their forecast on Sunday's but with yesterday morning's update they were also predicting 20-40cm with the snow level at 1300m.

[Mazza]

OH PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE... LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW>>>>>

[DHS]

Still looking good.
That would be an understatement.;) Looking very very good:happy:

[Legolas]

Happydance

[Mizu Kuma]

OH PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE... LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW>>>>>


Happydance

Is the naked dance thing back on then?

[The Frog]

You can see it to the bottom left of this satellite image:

The cloud in the middle of WA is the wet stuff that will arrive on Tuesday, then that low in the SW will move up over the mountains on Wednesday.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/httpdata_r/images/synoptic/wz_satsyn_aus_640x480.jpg
http://resources.weatherzone.com.au/wz/images/widgets/widget_transparent.png

[Mizu Kuma]

Bottom right is a High over EN ZED! Ya missen wit da krew Frog!

[Legolas]

mizu it would take jelly wrestling to a whole new level. Let's just keep our clothes on and be tentatively happy

[CycloneSteve]

So lid off again? My heart can't take much more of this....

[Mazza]

So lid off again? My heart can't take much more of this....
CS my Heart stoped 10 Days ago.... :) I will wait till tomorrow mornings forecast and be waiting with baited breath till Wednesday and see what the outcome is on Friday.....

[DHS]

:snow_alert::ismellsnow::snows_coming::ski::boarde r::adolf:

[JSJ]

oooh I can't stop watching the animated snowflakes on froggies forecast.. I think I could be getting excited.. could it be too soon to get excited??!!

[Mizu Kuma]

I think I could be getting excited.. could it be too soon to get excited??!!

Get ya Lid Off JSJ!

[JSJ]

Oooh I think I hear music.. a little song coming on.. my feet are starting to tap.. hands are starting to clap.. I'll do everyone a favour and leave my beanie on.. I'm a little shy :dance:

[Mazza]

HMMMM Not Excited YET! but I sure will be on Friday when Im leaving for the Snow if this System DeLivers the GOODS! OH GOD LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW :D

[karen97]

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

[Mazza]

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:
I AGREE!

[Bear]

I hope this container is Tupperware with the number of opening and closing of the lid it would be wearing out. ;)

:woohoo:

[Mizu Kuma]

Oooh I think I hear music.. a little song coming on.. my feet are starting to tap.. hands are starting to clap.. I'll do everyone a favour and leave my beanie on.. I'm a little shy :dance:

:giggle:

"Ya can Leave Your Hat On!"

[pow pig]

That lid should be buried under 2 foot of pow by Thursday!:D

[Mizu Kuma]

The lids off pow! We'll put it back on thursday arvo! :unsure:

[DHS]

Not planning on putting it back on for a couple of weeks, AT LEAST!!!!!:ismellsnow:
Check these babies out. I think they might be a little optomistic. Yes I know, pot calling kettle black.....blah blah ;)
http://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x191/glenndalton/01.png
http://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x191/glenndalton/02.png

[John Deere]

Cabin fever thread!

[Mizu Kuma]

;););););) Nah, it's just a nerve condition!

[Mr_Clean]

Not planning on putting it back on for a couple of weeks, AT LEAST!!!!!:ismellsnow:
Check these babies out. I think they might be a little optomistic. Yes I know, pot calling kettle black.....blah blah ;)
http://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x191/glenndalton/01.png
http://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x191/glenndalton/02.png


so nothing for Buller??? or am i reading it wrong :eek:

[The Frog]

Buller will get snow, just not as much as the other resorts due to where the moisture is coming from. Buller and Baw Baw may do a little better on Thursday though. Still probably get 20-35cm atleast over the two days.

[Mazza]

So from what I can interpret is that Selwyn, Perisher and Thredbo will get between 40-50cm over the two days?

[The Frog]

NSW BOM have a number 6 for tomorrow's precip....and that is 80+:eek:

[DHS]

NSW BOM have a number 6 for tomorrow's precip....and that is 80+:eek:
Not sure I've ever seen that in their forecast before. OMG

[DHS]

http://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x191/glenndalton/03.jpg
There's some for buller here :p

[Mizu Kuma]

Might have to hit Selwyn for some waist deep?

[pow pig]

NSW BOM have a number 6 for tomorrow's precip....and that is 80+:eek:

BOM's been pretty accurate so far...

It's probably intense enough for 50 to 70cm easy but speed is a worry.

[The Frog]

Wouldn't surpise me for Selwyn to get 80+ from this. Atleast 50cm+ elsewhere.

[Coopski]

Wouldn't surpise me for Selwyn to get 80+ from this. Atleast 50cm+ elsewhere.

Oooooh I love it when froggy busts open his lid! Oh and thankyou for giving me sunshine symbols for this Saturday when I'm down there :-) :happy:

[John Deere]

The lid seems to be in the next paddock now! Blown right off!

[pow pig]

BREAKING NEWS

Police have been called in to investigate the disappearance of the lid to the Snowatch snow jar, which was last seen early this morning.

Over recent weeks, the lid had been removed and replaced numerous times, however Police have ascertained that the lid was off when a predicted strong wind being accompanied by an intense weather system has blown the lid some considerable distance.

With further intense weather systems expected in the coming weeks, Police hold grave fears for the lid’s safety.

[karen97]

:giggle:

[Mizu Kuma]

Better keep the 'Tin Lids' inside and batten down the Hatches! (or should that be Lids?)

[DHS]

BREAKING NEWS

Police have been called in to investigate the disappearance of the lid to the Snowatch snow jar, which was last seen early this morning.

Over recent weeks, the lid had been removed and replaced numerous times, however Police have ascertained that the lid was off when a predicted strong wind being accompanied by an intense weather system has blown the lid some considerable distance.

With further intense weather systems expected in the coming weeks, Police hold grave fears for the lid’s safety.

:D Classic

[Mazza]

Wouldn't surpise me for Selwyn to get 80+ from this. Atleast 50cm+ elsewhere.
I will be holding you too it Mr Frog, Im heading down to Selwyn on Friday with a group of 20 friends and 20 Tadpoles... and to think the Adults were just going to be sitting around drinking all day due to the lack of Snow, Damn better Get the Pow Skis and start waxing them.... thanks Frog more work for me. now the Daughter is asking me to rewax her Snowboard. she was happy to ski till she seen the report..... OH LET IT SNOW, LET IT, SNOW, LET IT SNOW.......