Long range forecast......

[DHS]

is shaping up very, VERY nicely Frog. 9-12 August looks like it's gunna be HUGE!!!!! :eek: As long as that high weakens enough, could be some faceshots down golden point. graemlins/woohoo.gif graemlins/snow_alert.gif

[24]

thats what i'm hoping for...

[Total punter]

I arrive at Falls Creek on August 8 staying for 7 nights..... We jaged the best week of the year last year as well. We booked in December both times. Excited would be the understatement of the year!

Added bonus is that we don't need to wait for the oversnow lol...........

[Barcoo]

Lets Hope DHS as Im at Thredbo 7th to 16th.
However I think this big fat high that's on it's way looks to give us a clear 1st week of Aug.

[The Frog]

Gee, I'm in trouble if it's a fizzer.

[SA]

So it's not coincidence then :D

[powderhog]

Yes you are Frog. I have booked my week in Perisher, arriving 8 August, solely based on your forecast.

[The Frog]

So people don't panic just let me explain one thing about the forecast charts that most see around the place and the other forecast sites that rely on 'automated/computer generated forecasts'.

I look around 3-4 weeks out. No forecast models go more than 15 days out. I rely on what I see happening from looking at what is currently happening around the southern hemisphere. You will probably see the 8-14 day weatherzone charts indicate a large high or no snow for the second week of August when it comes into range. This is a good thing (confusing I know, but the best dumps seem to start turning up on the forecast charts around 5-6 days out).*

...P.S I'm probably just gibbering (had a few beers watching Manly tonight).

<small>*this is a get out clause if it doesn't snow</small

[Golfpunk]

graemlins/big_laugh.gif graemlins/big_laugh.gif graemlins/big_laugh.gif

[CycloneSteve]

Grrrr....bloody Manly....

Anyway...I'm bringing a school group down for 2 days skiing on 8th/9th August. Hopefully conditions will be ok then.

[The Frog]

Not to Thredbo please, we want it uncrowded. smile.gif

[Donza]

Originally posted by The Frog:
So people don't panic just let me explain one thing about the forecast charts that most see around the place and the other forecast sites that rely on 'automated/computer generated forecasts'.

I look around 3-4 weeks out. No forecast models go more than 15 days out. I rely on what I see happening from looking at what is currently happening around the southern hemisphere. You will probably see the 8-14 day weatherzone charts indicate a large high or no snow for the second week of August when it comes into range. This is a good thing (confusing I know, but the best dumps seem to start turning up on the forecast charts around 5-6 days out).*

...P.S I'm probably just gibbering (had a few beers watching Manly tonight).

<small>*this is a get out clause if it doesn't snow</small Agreed...I see goodness August 5th onwards...
Alot of pessimisim as soon as a blocking high pops up
Oh Manly were the goods..2 out of two

[The Frog]

I will now 'officially' call the second week of August the http://www.sleepinggiant.com.au/victoria/images/Banner_03.png of Season 2009.

Let's just hope it wakes up in time and doesn't make me look like a goose. smile.gif

[ 27. July 2009, 09:43 PM: Message edited by: The Frog ]

[Farty The Snowman]

What do you mean Frog?

The end of season 2009 or the start of something big.

Sleeping Giant doesn't sound good to me!!!

[The Frog]

If you read earlier I was saying that the forecast charts will start to say no or little snow for this time and then slowly build up next week indicating good snowfalls. The term 'sleeping' giant meaning that the big system is still there even if you don't see it on the automated chart updates over the next week. Hopefully it will then slowly wake up and show us the 'giant'. smile.gif

Hope that makes sense.

[Farty The Snowman]

Ok got it

I know that NSW has the Sleeping Giant bedding stores and I wasn't sure whether you were putting this season to bed........that's all.

But thanks for clarifying smile.gif

[The Frog]

They have five stores in VIC too.

[The Frog]

And for the record there are a couple of systems backing up around the 8-9th and then a few days later which may just creep into the start of the third week.

[CycloneSteve]

Originally posted by The Frog:
Not to Thredbo please, we want it uncrowded. smile.gif It's OK Frog, we are going to crowd up Smiggins. And we will only have around 40 students so it wont be that bad. Perisher has enough room for everyone. Be thankful though that NSW Sport and Rec no longer utilise Thredbo. All their Holiday Camps and School Camps are now based at Blue Cow.

[Farty The Snowman]

Originally posted by The Frog:
They have five stores in VIC too. They do?????? :eek:

[DHS]

Originally posted by The Frog:
I will now 'officially' call the second week of August the http://www.sleepinggiant.com.au/victoria/images/Banner_03.png of Season 2009.

Let's just hope it wakes up in time and doesn't make me look like a goose. smile.gif Oh but this is the story of "Jack and the Beanstalk" isn't it? When the giant awakes you will be the goose that lays the golden egg Frog. I still believe in you Frog.
This could be........... "EPIC"

[powderhog]

It better be! I need fresh snow while I am there.

[D-Dog]

if only this huge ridge of high pressure was about 500km to the north then all these fronts would be hitting us.

[Barcoo]

Better still 1000km

[Crystal]

I'm up at Falls on the 14th...lets hope it's good or I'll hunt you down Frog and beat you with a stick

[powderhog]

You will have to get the stick off me first :D tongue.gif

[TVC]

Frog,

Is the 'Sleeping Giant' you refer to the two deep low pressure systems that have been sitting in the Weddell Sea south of Cape Horn for about a week?

They seem unable to decide when to break free of Antartica to come rushing across for a party at Thredbo graemlins/snow.gif

[The Frog]

Originally posted by TVC:
Frog,

Is the 'Sleeping Giant' you refer to the two deep low pressure systems that have been sitting in the Weddell Sea south of Cape Horn for about a week?

They seem unable to decide when to break free of Antartica to come rushing across for a party at Thredbo graemlins/snow.gif No, at the moment they are sitting either side of South America.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/shemi2.24hr.png

[NissTrust]

hopefully GFS and EC come into line and bring a system similar to the one in year 2000.

Now that would be something, we need a half meter plus dumpage, to make amens for the warmer than average temps recently.

[DHS]

Is that the same one that Argentina got smashed with? Snow to sea level I heard.

[TVC]

That's the one I'm refering to south-east of Cape Horn.

Hopefully it will bulge north away from the Antarctic mainland and across the South Atlantic.

[BlueHue]

Got to say I'm very dissapointed Frog!

You have very inconveniently started calling dates for good snowfalls that manage to perfectly avoid when I'm going to be there. If you could wave the magic wand and delay the 12-14th snowfalls until about the 16th-18th ready for my arrival on the 17th it would be very much appreciated ;) tongue.gif

[NissTrust]

interesting article in the age on a warm July

http://www.theage.com.au/national/july-one-of-melbournes-hottest-20090729-e14a.html

[The Frog]

Originally posted by BlueHue:
Got to say I'm very dissapointed Frog!

You have very inconveniently started calling dates for good snowfalls that manage to perfectly avoid when I'm going to be there. If you could wave the magic wand and delay the 12-14th snowfalls until about the 16th-18th ready for my arrival on the 17th it would be very much appreciated ;) tongue.gif 17th is no good as I leave Thredbo on the 16th. smile.gif ...I only arranged snowfalls for my annual 7 days at the snow.

[Barcoo]

That will learn you BH for not going down during the slide ;)

[BlueHue]

ok I'll accept 14th to 16th then for bluebird freshies on the 17th tongue.gif

Geeze its looking like you picked a good week to hit up Thredbo!

Skiing with friends Barcoo who are doing coaching clinics run in the week of Aug 17th to 21st

[BlueHue]

16th to 17th, much better :D

[Barcoo]

Just looked at the updated long rang charts, looks like The Frogs instincts are right, the giant is rising, love your work Frog. 2nd week in Aug, bring it on. graemlins/snow_alert.gif graemlins/ismellsnow.gif

[ 30. July 2009, 04:05 PM: Message edited by: Barcoo ]

[karen97]

http://www.snowatch.com.au/weathericons/heavysnow.gif I love this pic :D

[The Frog]

don't talk it up too much, don't want to tire the big fella out before he gets here.

[Podlettte]

settle down everyone, it's hasn't risen yet! wait until christmas morning ok?

[ozgirl]

It seems Arthur Stanley, skiwatch, daily telegraph agrees with you Frog he says the outlook shows great promise with snow bearing fronts expected on or about Aug 4, 8, 13.

Although Don White's suggestion to use a credit card to scape Ice of a car is a little worrying. Not that I have never not done this but an expect suggesting it is a bit of a worry.

[The Frog]

Arthur is a huge fan of this site and uses my forecasts regularly in his skiwatch article. He has taken those dates of my longrange forecast page. smile.gif

Charts this morning didn't look so good, but that's fine as I have said all along the super computers are struggling to read the coming systems.

[Barcoo]

The same thing happened last year, do you remember Frog? the charts looks great then cr@p then great again and it all worked out, for the 1st & 2nd week in Aug anyway.
Looks like there are alot of lows and fronts that are lining up to push this high on it's way.


However I don't want to jinx it.

[ 31. July 2009, 02:47 PM: Message edited by: Barcoo ]

[The Frog]

No forecasts til Monday morning so no need for me to stress about the charts changing everyday....til then. smile.gif

[ozgirl]

Originally posted by ozgirl:
It seems Arthur Stanley, skiwatch, daily telegraph agrees with you Frog he says the outlook shows great promise with snow bearing fronts expected on or about Aug 4, 8, 13.

Although Don White's suggestion to use a credit card to scape Ice of a car is a little worrying. Not that I have never not done this but an expect suggesting it is a bit of a worry. I shoulds bloody known!!!

Oh well better that he quotes than ignore you - see even the experts have faith in ya Frog!!

[Barcoo]

Originally posted by The Frog:
No forecasts til Monday morning so no need for me to stress about the charts changing everyday....til then. smile.gif graemlins/big_laugh.gif graemlins/big_laugh.gif
Fair enough. However you will look at them(charts).
1)It's in your nature
2)The slide is only 8 days away.
3)It's fun
:D graemlins/skier.gif

[ 31. July 2009, 03:52 PM: Message edited by: Barcoo ]

[The Frog]

ofcourse I will look. The first thing the missus asks each day is are we still going to get snow?

[Silverwitch]

Originally posted by ozgirl:
Although Don White's suggestion to use a credit card to scape Ice of a car is a little worrying. Not that I have never not done this but an expect suggesting it is a bit of a worry. Thats what we Canberrans do when we go out for the night and all the windows are iced and have nothing else to get rid of the ice!

[Polaris]

Originally posted by The Frog:
The first thing the missus asks each day is are we still going to get snow? Mine asks why I am still here? :confused:

[Barcoo]

12th-13th Aug, wow
won't say to much as I don't want to jinx it.

[DHS]

Could be a nice follow up to the 8-11 Aug system. graemlins/snow_alert.gif

[The Frog]

shhhhh!

[Barcoo]

Originally posted by The Frog:
shhhhh! graemlins/big_laugh.gif I agree

[Peach Schnapps]

Me aswell, don't jinx it I arrive on 19th I really feel that there is a big THING happening!! totally IMO no actual science behind it. Will be heading to Jindabyne for a few nights then off to Cabramurra for 7 nights hopefully will be heaps of snow will get some pics.